The tourist industry in Russia is approaching collapse - that is the impression that those who scroll through the news about tourism get. Bankruptcies of tour operators and airlines, reduced demand, closures popular destinations...It seems that business in tourism is finally lost attraction, and you should not even think about opening your own travel agency.
But the largest market players continue to work and look to the future with optimism. Representatives of the tourist industry spoke about how they adapt to new realities and why the crisis best time for franchising.
Tourism business: what is happening in the industry?
In the first half of 2015, the number of Russians who traveled abroad on a tour package decreased more than 30%. Such data is provided by the Federal Agency for Tourism.
Starting from the second half of 2014, the Russian tourism business seems to be pursued by evil rock. In the beginning, the industry was hit depreciation of the ruble, in autumn a number of tour operators went bankrupt, which significantly undermined both the very confidence in the industry and the desire of tourists to travel abroad. After all, travel has become much more expensive.
However, few have given up traveling entirely. According to the same federal agency for tourism in 2014, the number of tourists who went abroad fell by only 3%. Many preferred to cheaper countries for recreation and self-booking of hotels and air tickets.
At the beginning of 2015 no travel trend intensified. People have gotten used to the idea that they will have to save on trips, which, by the way, have risen in price by 25-30%. The national currency also showed miracles of instability, which caused anxiety among citizens and unpredictably changed the price of tours. Curator of the franchising network of travel agencies « » Maria Slugina says: “Against the backdrop of a significant decline in income, it has become difficult for the population to plan vacation expenses. This hit hard, first of all, early bookings.”
Particularly affected were long-distance destinations with high airfare and countries where vacation costs are directly dependent on the euro and the dollar. From foreign directions it is essential increased demand for Turkey and Egypt, where you can go for relatively little money and save money there due to the all-inclusive system. Also in the summer of 2015, domestic destinations such as Crimea and Sochi became especially popular.
Over time, market players somehow adapted to the new conditions, and the increase in prices for tours allowed them to lose not so much revenue, although the flow of people traveling abroad decreased.
But since the fall of 2015, new troubles have rained down on the industry. The first of these was the revocation of the air operator's certificate from the second Russian airlines- Transaero. This led to shortages in some areas and to partial rise in airfare. However, market participants note that everything turned out to be not so scary. The most popular destinations have risen in price by only 10-13%.
A much more tangible blow to the industry dealt air traffic ban with Egypt because of the terrorist threat. This destination was the second most popular destination during the year and the most popular for bookings on new year holidays. According to the estimates of the Russian Union of Tourism Industry, tour operators lost about 1.5 billion rubles on this.
Some Russians have completely abandoned tours, and companies had to return money for failed trips. The other part agreed rebook tours to more expensive Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam), India, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It is difficult to say for sure which part of the tourists agreed to the exchange. Tour operators call figures from 30% to 90%.
It is not yet known how soon the most popular tourist destination will return to the market.
“The complexity of the situation with the ban on tours to Egypt is also in the circumstances: the terrorist attack will have long-term psychological consequences - tourists have become afraid to fly abroad”
Maria Slugina from Ross-Tour explains.
Nevertheless, there were among the Russians those whom the ban did not frighten. Desperate travelers searched other methods get to your favorite resorts, for example, fly to Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh from Ukraine and Belarus, or get to Taba and Dahab, landing in neighboring Israel. However, conscientious travel agencies refused to assist in this.
Other destinations were actively proposed, such as cost-competitive resorts Krasnodar Territory. True, even in these parts of Russia beach holiday it is impossible in winter, so those who were determined to lie down under the palm trees refused it.
Tourists with the nearest departure dates immediately after the ban on flights to Egypt were offered alternative in the form of Turkey. However, things did not go so smoothly here either. On November 24, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber over Syria. This led to a number of unpleasant consequences, including for tourism.
From December 1, charter flights to Turkey were completely stopped, and a ban on the sale of tours to this country followed. It should be noted that according to ATOR 60% of the outbound tourism market just accounted for Turkey and Egypt closed to the public.
It is also noteworthy that a number of tour operators operating on the Russian market have Turkish participation. Among them are such major players as Anex Tour. It is still difficult to say how the sanctions against Turkey will affect them and their franchisees, but apparently these companies are not going to leave the market.
How are travel agencies adapting to new conditions?
All these shocks could not but affect the tourism business. According to ATOR, in 2014 - the first half of 2015 the number of tour operators in Russia decreased more than twice. At the beginning of 2014, there were 2 thousand of them, and by the middle of 2015 - about 900.
Even worse, the situation affected travel agencies. Agents found themselves between tour operators and tourists, as between a rock and a hard place. They had to deal directly with dissatisfied customers after the cancellation of tours to Egypt and Turkey and deal with issues of damages, as well as legal difficulties with suppliers.
ATOR predicts that about 4,000 travel agencies will close by the end of the year.
Deputy CEO networks « » Makhach Ismailov said that from the market non-professional players left: “Those who did not transfer money to tour operators on time and spent working capital for their needs had to close. As a result, when difficulties occurred, such agencies could not cope with the cash gap.”
The years when the demand for tourism products grew rapidly seem to be behind us, but the venerable market players are not going to give up so easily. And they don't really have much of a choice. stop work not so easy. Tour operators are held back by the need to service previously sold tours, as well as obligations to partners and creditors.
2015 was the year for the participants of the tourist market, when the stereotypical economic models stopped working, and therefore the players have to adapt to new realities. Apparently, most, if not the whole next year, will have to do without sales of the most popular destinations - Egypt and Turkey. Therefore, first of all, tour operators will take up search for new directions.
Dmitriy Podolsky, development director of the Rosa Vetrov agency network, expects that in 2016 the main demand will fall on domestic destinations. Already very popular New Year tours on ski resorts in Krasnaya Polyana, holidays abroad have lost most of the audience. In the summer, Sochi and Crimea will undoubtedly take the first place, the demand for which increased by 40% last season. The same opinion is shared by Rostourism. According to his expectations, the growth of domestic tourist flow in 2016 will amount to 3-5 million people.
The foreign direction will no doubt suffer losses, but they will be less than this year, as the operators have already assessed the situation and have begun to take decisive measures. It is planned to orient tourists to European destinations.
Network Managing Director « » Evgeny Danilovich believes that the industry will adapt over time will return to previous volumes. But it is important to take into account that now every client and every ruble counts, so business efficiency comes to the fore.
In addition to reorientation to new directions, other measures will have to be taken, for example, to provide additional services in the form of sales of air and railway tickets, hotel reservations, lending and insurance.
small single travel agencies in order to survive, you will have to work more actively on your client base, analyze and reduce current costs, and also try your best to reduce rental payments.
Traditionally, large networks survive crises much better than single players. They have the opportunity to redistribute resources, provide support, and well-known brands inspire more trust among tourists. Therefore, many of the experts interviewed recommend joining a major network by purchasing a franchise. But will it really help?
Franchising in crisis
According to Maria Slugina from Ross-Tour, the demand for travel agency franchises in difficult times only grows. “Our company receives applications to join the network every day, because a strong brand is now becoming one of the survival factors for small agencies.”
In addition, franchisees receive an increased commission from operators, and can also take advantage of the franchisor's legal assistance, which is especially important in cases of canceled trips to Egypt and Turkey.
Makhach Ismailov, Deputy General Director of the 1001 Tour network, notes that already operating independent travel agencies have begun to join the network more actively:
“Now travel agencies are hoping that a well-known brand will attract new customers. In addition, by joining the network, they improve the quality of service.”
The calculation of the players, as a rule, turns out to be correct: lately, people tend to trust well-known brands more.
Fly.ru also notes that Franchise Demand Has Fallen. "In a number of major cities Until now, queues of people wishing to purchase our franchise have been formed, the dynamics of applications continues to remain at the same level, ”says Evgeny Danilovich.
Network of travel agencies Coral Travel in the crisis year of 2015 and showed the best dynamics of development at all and today it has more than 820 sales offices, said Roman Salikhov, head of the franchising development department.
Identified the most popular cities and regions of Russia for domestic tourism in 2016 and the most popular foreign countries for outbound tourism Russian tourists in 2016.
Number of international and domestic tourists in 2016
More than 22 million tourists visited Russia in 2016, 10% more than in 2015. The number of domestic tourists in Russia in 2016 increased to 55 million. Number of outgoing tourist trips from Russia in 2016 amounted to 32 million.
Tourism Results and Statistics of Tourism in Russia in 2016 - Tourism Rating of Russia 2016 (Statistics of domestic tourism in Russia, statistics of inbound tourism by foreign tourists to Moscow, St. Petersburg and others, as well as statistics of outbound tourism in 2016).
Krasnodar Territory, Moscow Region and Crimea became the leaders of domestic tourism in 2016 among the regions of Russia. Kuban was visited by 15.8 million tourists in 2016, Moscow region was visited by 12.5 million tourists in 2016, and Crimea was visited by 5.6 million tourists in 2016.
Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sochi became the most popular tourist cities in Russia in 2016. Moscow was visited by 17.5 million tourists in 2016, St. Petersburg was visited by 6.9 million tourists, and Sochi was visited by 6.5 million tourists in 2016.
Kaliningrad region, Kabardino-Balkaria, Irkutsk region and Bryansk region showed the highest growth rates of domestic tourism in 2016. The Kaliningrad region was visited by 1.4 million tourists in 2016, which is 30% more than in 2015. Kabardino-Balkaria was visited by 400 thousand tourists in 2016, 40% more than a year earlier, and Bryansk region visited by 55 thousand tourists, which is 51% more than in 2015, and Irkutsk region visited by more than 1 million tourists, which is a third more than in 2016.
Abkhazia, Thailand and Georgia became the leaders of outbound tourism from Russia in 2016. Abkhazia was visited by 1.5 million tourists from Russia, while Thailand and Georgia were visited by more than 1 million Russian tourists in 2016.
Tunisia, Morocco, Cyprus and Cuba showed the highest growth rates of outbound tourism from Russia in 2016. Tunisia was visited by 623 thousand Russian tourists in 2016, which is 137% more than in 2015. Morocco was visited by 60 thousand Russian tourists in 2016, which is 100% more than a year earlier. Cyprus was visited by 782 thousand Russian tourists, 49% more than in 2015. Cuba was visited by 65 thousand Russian tourists in 2016, which is 50% more than in 2015.
Most Popular tourist cities Russia in 2016 *:
- Moscow, 17.5 million, including 4.55 million foreign tourists
- St. Petersburg, 6.9 million (+6%), including 2.8 million foreign tourists
- Sochi, 6.5 million
- Kazan, 2.5 million (+16%)
- Sergiev Posad, 1.7 million
* Percentage of change compared to 2015 is indicated in parentheses.
Statistics by regions - The most popular tourist regions in Russia in 2016 (Domestic tourism in Russia in 2016)
- Krasnodar Territory, 15.8 million (+5%)
- Moscow region, 12.5 million (+9%), including 3.9 million staying at a hotel (hotel)
- Crimea, 5 million 573 thousand (+21%)
- Vladimir region, 4 million (+21%)
- Primorsky Krai, 3 million (+25%), including 568 thousand foreign tourists
- Yaroslavl region, 3 million (+15%)
- Tatarstan, 2.9 million (+7%), including 250 thousand foreign tourists)
- Astrakhan region, 2.5 million (+10%)
- Chelyabinsk region, 2.2 million (+10%)
- Leningrad region, 2 mln.
- Altai Territory, 2 million (+8%)
- Stavropol Territory, 1.4 million (+5%)
- Bashkortostan, 1.4 million, (+25%)
- Kaliningrad region, 1.4 million (+30%)
- Buryatia, 1 million 40 thousand (+15%)
- Irkutsk region, over 1 million (+30%)
- Karachay-Cherkessia, 1 million
- Volgograd region, 930 thousand (+14%)
- Kostroma region, 922 thousand (+4%)
- Karelia, 760 thousand
- Mari El, 610 thousand (+9%)
- Khabarovsk Krai, 520 thousand (+13%) and 36 thousand foreign tourists (+8%)
- Dagestan, over 480 thousand (+20%), including 28 thousand foreign tourists
- Adygea, 420 thousand (+16%)
- Kabardino-Balkaria, 420 thousand (+40%)
- Murmansk region, 320 thousand
- Saratov region, 315 thousand
- Smolensk region, 300 thousand, including 33 thousand foreign tourists
- Chuvashia, 246 thousand
- Republic of Komi, 230 thousand (+5%)
- Ulyanovsk region, 200 thousand
- Kamchatka Krai, 198 thousand (+10%), including 16.5 thousand foreign tourists
- Amur Region, 142 thousand (+16%), including 80 thousand tourists from China
- Chechen Republic, more than 80 thousand
- Bryansk region, 55 thousand (+51%)
- Ingushetia, 45 thousand
The number of Russian tourists traveling within the country increased by 15% in 2016 compared to last year, with the first time in Russia that the flow was redistributed from independent to organized. Maya Lomidze, executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), told reporters about this.
"We note preliminary growth of the domestic tourist flow by 15% in total for all segments, organized and independent at the end of the year. If we are talking about budget option recreation, until 2016, organized tourism here accounted for no more than 10% of the total flow, now we can talk about confident 20%," said Ms. Lomidze.
In 2017, ATOR predicts a slowdown in the growth of domestic tourism. "But our forecast may not come true if the accommodation facilities are not greedy and leave the prices of last year. So far, the price increase is announced at the level of 20%, somewhere even up to 30%. Price increase by more than 5-7%, within inflation , can have an extremely negative impact on loading," the executive director of ATOR said.
According to her, because the share of organized tourism has grown, market participants will compete for consumers with a declining tourist flow, which will lead to increased competition. "And these are more interesting proposals, it is useful for the market," M. Lomidze said.
At the same time, the inbound tourist flow to Russia increased by 6%. This was facilitated by the work of Visit Russia representative offices abroad, as well as the fact that inbound tourism was one of the priority areas of the Russian tourism sector. Of the total number of foreign tourists, 90% of the flow visited Moscow and St. Petersburg, the main age group of foreigners is 50-65 years old. Foreign guests paid an average of 1.5 - 2 thousand dollars for a tour. Travel expenses averaged $1,000 per week.
The main problems that impede the growth of the entry flow to Russia are the difficult foreign policy situation, the image of Russia in foreign media, often negative, insufficient promotion of the positive image of the Russian Federation abroad, as well as difficulties in obtaining visas.
At the same time, the number of Russian tourists who went abroad in 2016 turned out to be 6% less than a year earlier. “Although all countries are talking about an increase in tourist flow, the total number of people traveling abroad is less than in 2015 - by about 6% as of the end of December. this, we would have reached the indicators of 2014," M. Lomidze said.
Among the areas that showed significant growth in 2016, ATOR analysts single out Greece, Spain, Thailand, Vietnam, Italy, Bulgaria, Tunisia, Cyprus, Croatia, and the Dominican Republic.
On the portal of the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) Russian citizens outside the country in 2017. The data in the system were provided by the FSB of the Russian Federation.
According to the FSB of the Russian Federation (its structure includes the Border Guard Service, which controls border crossings), . This is 24.13% more than in 2016, when our compatriots left Russia 33,827,420 times.
Of the total number of trips of Russians abroad, 31.87% fell on the "near abroad" - the CIS countries, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The leader here is Abkhazia with 4.358 million trips (+1.95% compared to 2016), but it is clear that this figure includes repeated movements of citizens of Abkhazia from Russian passports, and it is extremely difficult to isolate the real tourist flow from it.
As for non-CIS destinations, it makes sense here again to focus on the total number of trips, and not on the number of trips for the purpose of the visit "tourism" - the methodology for identifying such a purpose of a visit to mass visa-free destinations is so incomprehensible.
TOP-20 EXIT DESTINATIONS "FAR" FOREIGN ABROAD IN 2017 At
In 2017, Russians made 28,604,030 trips to all non-CIS countries, which is 31.6% more than in 2016. The leaders of the TOP-20 (by the number of trips made in 2017 from Russia) were distributed as in Fig. 1.
Rice. 1. TOP-20 outbound destinations by the number of trips of Russian citizens in 2017 (excluding the CIS countries, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia)
Almost all countries from the TOP-20 showed an increase in the number of trips from Russia in 2018. Turkey became the leader in terms of growth in the number of trips - +553.2%. Its results are mainly due to the 2016 closed season.
After it, the best dynamics from the TOP-20 was demonstrated by the United United Arab Emirates: +53.7% compared to 2016. In third place is Vietnam with a 30.1% growth year-on-year, followed by the Czech Republic with a growth of 27.4% and Thailand with Italy (an increase of 25.6% and 25.5% respectively).
Almost all countries from the rest of the list showed double-digit growth in tourist traffic, with the exception of Cyprus (+6.25%) and Greece (+8.90%).
Three countries from the TOP-20 exit markets, according to the border service of the FSB of Russia, showed a negative trend in the number of trips in 2017 compared to the previous year: Lithuania (-6.85%), Bulgaria (-10.3%) and Tunisia (-16.9%).
Of the countries outside the TOP-20, the dynamics of several countries is interesting. The Dominican Republic has the best results (it also has the second place in the dynamics of arrivals in the general list of mass destinations, right after Turkey) - here, according to the FSB, the number of Russian tourists increased by 73.13% (to a figure of 239,862 in 2017 .).
In Cuba, the number of arrivals from Russia in 2017 increased by 60.1% (82,919), in Jordan - by 56%, in Austria - by 34.9% (264,082 trips), in France - by 22% (up to 524 thousand), in South Korea- increased by 16% (279,133 trips), in India - by 29.1% (233,489 trips), in Malta - by 31% (14,240 trips).
Interestingly, despite all the visa difficulties, the outbound flow to the United States also increased (by 6.3%) (269,128 trips). Dramatically, by 129%, the outbound flow in Saudi Arabia, reaching a figure of 7745 people.
The completely unique “explosion” of the outbound flow from Russia to Tanzania is also curious: from 56 people in 2016 to 2345 in 2017 (an increase of 4187%). He explains simply - this year he opened direct charter flights to Tanzania (to Zanzibar).
In 2017, the tourist flow to Qatar also "grew" sharply - by 33%, to 87.5 thousand trips. This is explained in the same way as the very small, irrelevant figures of the tourist flow * (see explanation at the end of the article) in some long-haul destinations, such as the Seychelles, Malaysia or Sri Lanka. Since the border service keeps records on boarding passes, the statistics of Qatar (as well as partially, Singapore and, to a lesser extent, Korea) reflect the growth of flights to countries South-East Asia with connections at these points.
Of the TOP-30 countries in the red in terms of the dynamics of the tourist flow, except for Lithuania, Tunisia and Bulgaria, there were also Morocco (-39%, and this is the most serious decrease in the tourist flow from the entire list of countries with relevant statistics), Singapore (-10%), Denmark ( -7.3%) and Slovakia (-4%). All other foreign destinations from the TOP-30, judging by the statistics of the border service of the FSB of Russia, showed an increase in the number of Russian arrivals in 2017.
MAIN CLASSIC OUTGOING TOURISM COUNTRIES IN 2017
You can make one more cut - in the areas of classical tourism "for the purpose of recreation and excursions" (leisure). To do this, it will be necessary to exclude from the statistics foreign countries with a predominant share of cross-border movements for the purpose of shopping or other non-tourist purposes (China, Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia).
The TOP-20 of such countries in 2017 is shown below in Figure 2.
Fig.2. TOP-20 outbound destinations in 2017 ("classic tourism" for the purpose of recreation and cultural and educational purposes)
The number of trips (accurate to units) is only for 2017 (purple row).
EXPLANATION TO STATISTICS
* Recall that in 2014, Rosstat (EMISS coordinator), by order 510, introduced a new method for calculating the volume of tourist traffic, one of the features of which is that when crossing the border repeatedly, a citizen of Russia or any other country will be counted as many times as he did. “Therefore, tourist flows are measured not by the number of tourists, but by the number of trips,” the Rosstat document emphasized.
The statistics of the border service is relevant for counting the number of trips of Russians on mass outbound destinations of the "far" abroad for the purpose of recreation. The number of repeated trips per year by Russian citizens to here is not so large as to significantly distort the data on a number of foreign destinations in the far abroad in one direction or another. Nevertheless, in several areas, the discrepancy with foreign data on the number of Russian tourists in 2017 is significant, which is explained by different methods of accounting for trips).
It is also obvious that the data of the FSB border service, unfortunately, will not be relevant when counting the number of tourists traveling to border countries such as Finland, the Baltic states or Poland, partly China, as well as to the CIS countries, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Obviously, here the proportion of multiple border crossings is much higher, since most of these crossings are done for the purpose of personal shopping or (as in the case of Ukraine and a number of other CIS countries) visiting relatives.
Also, such statistics are not suitable for accounting for trips of people traveling with transfers on many long-haul routes, incl. visa-free destinations (because here the main way to get into the country is air transport, and border guards analyze only boarding passes, which indicate not the final, but the intermediate destination). That is why, for example, the number of visits to the Seychelles, Mauritius, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand and others, and so large - in such non-tourist states for Russia as Qatar, whose capital is a major transit air hub.
COMPLETE STATISTICS of the departure of citizens of the Russian Federation abroad from the Border Service of the FSB of the Russian Federation for 2016-17. you can see .
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