3.1. Trends in global air travel development

The current situation and future of the global air transportation market is associated with the formation of airline alliances based on a circle of airports, on the basis of which the transportation network is built and which will ensure the growth of traffic for the member airlines based there. Competition in the global air transportation market is a struggle between airline alliances and major hub airports to capture the largest possible share of the consumer market. There are now two trends in the development of air transportation in the world: 1) the point-to-point system, which can be seen in the example of the United States, involves direct flights between the point of departure and the point of destination; 2) European countries are closer to the hub-and-spoke scheme (literally - hub and spoke), which means that the passenger flies to the destination not directly, but with a transfer at a hub airport. In this case, the schedule must be designed so that the passenger can transfer to a connected flight as quickly as possible. That is, hub airports collect passenger traffic from a large number of cities and redistribute them to connected flights. The hub airport must also develop a special technology for passenger service and baggage handling, ensuring the highest possible level of passenger service. These trends leave their mark on the formation of the policies of leading aircraft manufacturing corporations: the American company Boeing and the Western European aircraft manufacturing alliance Airbus. The Americans believe that the future belongs to high-speed, highly economical airliners with medium passenger capacity, which will make it possible to organize non-stop air service between many cities around the world, bypassing large airports, since they are often overloaded. Europeans are relying on the A-380 superliner, which carries more than half a thousand passengers per flight with the highest level of comfort. Only the largest airports in the world will be able to accept such aircraft, from where passengers will have to travel to their final destination on smaller-capacity aircraft. Based on these premises, leading aircraft manufacturing companies formulate a line of aircraft. Thus, the Boeing company is completing flight tests and is preparing for serial production the 787 model, capable of transporting from 200 to 300 people over a record 16 thousand km. And Airbus showed airlines a super-capacity double-deck A380, capable of carrying up to 550 people. At the same time, the European manufacturer does not discount the demand for ultra-long-range aircraft, so in defiance of Boeing and its 787 model it is creating a competing aircraft, the A350. It is impossible to expect that airliners of average passenger capacity (according to the American model) will fly to every airport, based on the capabilities of the airports and the availability of passenger traffic. Most likely, such aircraft will be able to deliver passengers to regional airports, from which passengers, depending on the distance, will fly to their final destination on local airlines or be delivered by road (in the conditions of the Russian Federation, if there are roads). Thus, in both directions of development, there remains a need for hub airports, the capacity and characteristics of which depend on passenger traffic and the type of aircraft used. We should not forget that even with the American model, the world’s largest hub airports successfully operate in the United States, for example, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, Houston and others with a passenger traffic of several tens of millions of people. per year every year.

3.2. Concepts about a hub airport, transit and transfer passengers

Recently, the issue of the possibility and necessity of creating hub airports in the Russian Federation and the Moscow aviation hub has been repeatedly discussed in the press and on television. A hub airport is essentially a transit and transfer airport. Transportation through the largest foreign hubs is organized according to the “hub” and “spoke” principle. First, passengers on mainline, interregional and intercontinental routes gather at the hub airport (hub), then these passengers are sent on regional and local routes (spokes) to final destinations where it is not profitable for the mainline carrier to fly. Aviation statistics take into account two types of transit passengers: direct transit passengers and transfer passengers. The first are passengers of a flight making a temporary stop at the airport, for example, to refuel the aircraft carrying them or to board (disembark) some passengers. In this case, the flight number does not change, although the aircraft may be replaced. In this case, the carrier must pay the airport for servicing passengers who are passing the time of stop at the airport terminal. A transfer passenger is a passenger making a transfer at a given airport from a flight of one airline to another flight of the same or another airline (“transfer”). Such a passenger may have a single transportation document valid for the entire route, but the flight numbers will necessarily vary. This passenger is paid twice for the service: for the flight on which he arrived, and for the flight on which he departs. Therefore, from the point of view of airport economics, a single stay at the airport of a transfer passenger gives the effect of serving two passengers. And if this is a passenger on international flights, then in aviator jargon he is called a “fat passenger.” Naturally, this is the most desirable passenger at the airport, and there is fierce competition between airports to attract him and similar cargo. A transfer passenger, often flying to Moscow from cities in Western Europe, the USA, and Southeast Asian countries, will inevitably work for the economy of not only the airport, but also the city, using the services of the city infrastructure at the airport and outside it. At the same time, it is a kind of passenger. Unlike a local, who will fly to the final destination of his journey in any case, a transfer almost always has a choice. Therefore, he will fly to Moscow only if the transfer in Moscow can be done faster and more conveniently than at airports in other cities. The airport business is, first of all, a fierce competition to attract this particular category of passengers. The specifics of this competition also extend to cities with several airports. In this case, the competitiveness of the air hub as a whole becomes decisive. The interests of this external competitiveness are served by suppressing internal competition between the airports of an air hub, since it worsens the economic performance of the air hub as a whole. As a rule, in this case, airports are specialized and managed by a single management company (London, Paris, New York, Washington, Milan). Unfortunately, the fragmented operation of UIA airports does not stimulate an increase in the number of transfer passengers. If, for example, a passenger flew from Khabarovsk to Domodedovo Airport and he needs to fly to Adler from Vnukovo Airport, then this passenger is no longer needed by Domodedovo Airport from the moment of arrival and is not needed by Vnukovovo Airport until the passenger arrives at Vnukovo. The passenger and his luggage are nobody's business. Domodedovo Airport will not take care of the future passenger of Vnukovo Airport and vice versa. Therefore, at the slightest opportunity, the passenger tries not to be a “transfer”, but to use direct flights without transfers whenever possible. For the same reason, Moscow annually loses “its” transfer passengers not only in Russia (Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, St. Petersburg, Samara organized direct flights to the cities of the South and West of Russia, the CIS, some cities of Western Europe, bypassing Moscow), but also " transferring" them and their income to Kiev, Tashkent, Helsinki, Warsaw, Prague, Budapest, etc. The situation may change when the transfer of an air passenger will be carried out in one airport terminal in the presence of "connecting" waves of flights and appropriate baggage handling. To be able to estimate the share of transfer air passengers at some large foreign airports, we will provide some data. The number of transfer passengers at the airports of Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Copenhagen is more than 40% of the number of passengers on regular flights, in Brussels and Heathrow more than 30%. Despite the disunity in the work of UIA airports, a certain positive trend has emerged in the struggle for passenger transfers in recent years. For example, according to data provided by Domodedovo Airport, the share of transfer passengers at this airport is constantly increasing. It should be noted that transfer passengers can only be on regular lines, both international and domestic. The passenger knows in advance which flight and when he should fly further from the transfer airport, but this requires the formation of a hub airport with connecting waves and the corresponding infrastructure. The transfer passenger, as a rule, has nothing to do with the transfer country. The service of such a passenger at the transfer airport is an exportable service. The most successful countries in the export of air transport services are the countries of the Middle East. Figure 3.1 shows that per $1 million of gross domestic product (GDP), the UAE attracts 93.0 and Qatar attracts 88.4 transfer passengers. Next come the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - Singapore and Hong Kong.

Fig.3.1. International transfer passenger traffic per $1 million GDP, passengers.

In European countries these figures are lower and range from 10 to 20 passengers. Russia practically does not use this resource. Russia's indicators are 20-30 times lower than those of the Asian countries shown in the diagram. In a number of countries, the number of international transfer passengers is comparable to domestic (origin/destination) passengers, and Qatar is the only country in the world with more transfer passengers than origin/destination passengers. In the UAE, the Netherlands and Singapore, there is 1 transfer for every 2 origin/end passengers. Russia is 3-4 times inferior to European countries, serving only 1 transfer passenger per 10 initial / final passengers, which can be seen in Fig. 3.2.

Fig.3.2. International transfer passenger traffic per 100 initial/final passengers, people.

Many countries are seeking to obtain stable additional income from transfer passengers. For example, in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong, Dubai and other cities there are special programs, for example, "Singapore Stopover Holidays". Under these programs, visa requirements are simplified and these programs include visits to many tourist attractions.

3.3. Requirements for a hub airport

The attractiveness of an airport as a hub is determined by the following factors: ? geopolitical location (capital, center of the economic region); ? the development of its infrastructure (airfield, passenger and cargo terminal, transport connections, air traffic control system); ? capacity and development of the domestic and international transportation market; ? level of service for passengers and cargo at the airport. At the same time, there are several criteria that determine the airport’s readiness to perform the functions of a hub: The ability to organize the required number of connections and the absence of restrictions on their growth. In large foreign hubs, the average number of arriving flights from which it is possible to make a time-convenient transfer to a departing flight ranges from 50-70 units. per hour (Frankfurt, Amsterdam) up to 20-30 units. (Helsinki, Vienna). The task of the hub is to concentrate incoming air transport flows and redistribute them to outgoing directions by organizing so-called “connecting waves”. ? The capacity of passenger and cargo terminals and the airport as a whole, the ability to provide and guarantee in the long term a high level of service for airlines and air passengers. The airport complex largely determines the face of the airport, the comfort and level of service for air passengers. There are certain requirements for terminal complexes of international airports. ? Ability to ensure transfer times in accordance with carrier requirements and global practice by organizing connecting waves and strictly following the schedule. Optimal connection times are achieved by concentrating incoming and outgoing international and domestic passenger flows in a single airport complex and having an appropriate baggage handling system. According to world practice, the time required for a transit transfer at the airport is 30-60 minutes (Vienna, Frankfurt, Amsterdam), and when performing customs procedures up to 2-3 hours (USA). The organization of a “hub” airport is based, first of all, on the creation of a special airport service technology aimed at simultaneous reception and departure of the maximum number of passengers, providing them with the opportunity to fly to the maximum number of new destinations within the minimum time, subject to a sufficiently large volume of transportation of transfer passengers making transfer at a given airport, who are attracted, among other things, by the quality of airport service. ? The possibility of developing the airport, because without this it has no prospects. The most important thing at airports is the airfield complex. The area of ​​the airfield, the number and location of runways, the distance from the airfield to populated areas and bodies of water, the presence or absence of land reserves for the development of the airfield impose restrictions on the capacity and possibility of developing the entire airport. As a rule, hub airports have two or more independent runways, which allows more efficient use of opportunities to increase passenger traffic. Issues of lack of runway capacity have already been encountered at a number of basic hub airports. The ability to build new runways is severely limited by environmental laws and the lack of appropriate reserved areas. In this situation, expanding the capacity of other airport facilities, for example, passenger terminals and others, becomes meaningless. Leading airports such as Heathrow (London), Orly, Charles de Gaulle (Paris), Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Narita (Tokyo) and others have faced such problems. For successful competition, the capacity of hub airports must have development reserves and those with There will be more of them; they can most successfully cope with the growing needs of the market, capturing an ever larger part of it. Being one of the main areas affecting flight safety, the airfield complex is created and operates in accordance with extremely stringent standards. ICAO standards regulate the requirements for the meteorological minimum of instrumental landing, the width and length of runways and taxiways, obstacle limitation surfaces, environmental safety, etc.? Presence of a hub airline or airline alliance. In most cases, the main carrier company that dominates the airport is closely associated with the hub. The main indicators of the degree of its dominance at the airport are: ? the share of passengers transported by this company from the total passenger turnover of the airport for a certain period of time; ? the share of passenger kilometers of this company from the same indicator for the airport; Hub index - the number of connecting flights of a given company over a certain period of time. Typical examples of airports with a single dominant company are Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport (serves 22 companies, but Delta has about 80% share) and London Heathrow Airport (main carrier British Airways has about 40% share, but the airport serves 83 airlines, most of them which are not involved in dockings). However, there are also examples of airports with several dominant airlines. For example, Chicago O"Hare International Airport has 2 main companies with approximately equal shares of passenger traffic and comparable hub index indicators. Another example of an airport of this type is Los Angeles International Airport. According to a consulting firm in the field of airports and aviation (Airport & Aviation Consultants) in 2000 In the USA, a large hub was considered an airport with a large number of passengers served and flights operated (more than 7 million landings, i.e. passenger departures per year) with more than two runways, which are usually parallel. For example, Denver has five runways and is building a sixth Washington Dulles - three runways, with two more currently being designed In the United States, in 2003, 31 airports were classified as major hubs due to the fact that each of them accounted for more than 1% of the total number of aircraft boardings. aircraft in the entire United States. These airports handled 493,911,466 passengers. Airports such as Chicago O'Hare, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Dallas-Ft, Worth, etc. fell into this category. Airlines usually have a system of hubs at their disposal highways and routes that are serviced by these companies. Hubami United Airlines are Washington Dulles, Chicago O'Hare, Denver and San Francisco. Continental uses Newark, Cleveland and Houston as its hubs. Large hubs have capacious passenger terminals that provide the necessary throughput taking into account connecting waves. The size and layout of these terminals is a complete solution and they have alternative options such as linear terminals, terminals with boarding galleries, and terminals with adjacent concourses. Airports that are hubs for certain airlines need to determine the number of passengers making a transfer, since boarding, disembarking and transferring passengers put forward different requirements for the execution of various functional areas within the terminal and require appropriate allocation of space. Requirements for airfield airfield facilities at a hub airport are determined “by design or critical aircraft.” This is an aircraft that performs or is expected to perform at least 500 takeoff and landing operations in a year. The approach speed and wingspan of the design aircraft establish lateral separation standards that determine the distances between operating areas such as runways and parallel taxiways, the width of runways and taxiways, and the size of traffic strips. In general, summing up briefly, we can imagine an airport that for the next 2-3 decades will satisfy the requirements for a hub airport and ensure an increasing volume of air traffic. Such an airport has several (at least two) parallel runways, spaced in accordance with ICAO requirements, providing the possibility of simultaneous, independent execution of runways from them. There should be a land reserve to increase the number of runways to more than 3 if necessary. The passenger terminal is located in the middle between the runways and can be expanded on a modular basis. The terminal is accessible by a motorway, railway or metro line. Boarding for all types of transport takes place at the airport terminal building or on the square in front of it.

3.4. Foreign and domestic research on the ways of development of UIA and the issue of creating a hub airport at UIA

In 1993-1994 under the auspices of the American bank Lemon Brothers, a study was conducted on the future development of UIA (Moscow Airports project). This work examined various options for the integrated functioning of UIA airports and concluded that in terms of attractiveness for investors, volumes of financing, capacity of airfields and airspace, level of passenger service, environmental impact and development opportunities, Domodedovo Airport is the most promising. The following option for the distribution of air transportation was proposed as optimal: to Domodedovo airport - international and domestic passenger transportation, to Sheremetyevo - cargo transportation, to Vnukovo - government and business flights, and to Bykovo - gradual cessation of activities. In 1998, on behalf of the European Union, the Schiphol Airport Services Authority (Amsterdam) prepared and published the report “Planning for the Development of Civil Aviation” (financed under the “Tacis program”). Previously, in 1997, a group of Western experts from the NACO company and specialists from the Airport Civil Aviation Association, with the assistance of the Aviainvest company, examined 30 of the most important airports in Russia. The general conclusion in this work regarding the development of the Moscow airport system is the warning: “Under the conditions of the free Russian air transport market, the Moscow metropolis should be served by one main hub airport with the implementation of the principle of connecting international and intercontinental flights, on the one hand, and international and domestic flights, on the other.” Naturally, this will require ensuring the necessary capacity of runways and terminals. At the same time, it is recommended to develop a clear policy for the selection and development of a hub airport in the Moscow region, which should undergo significant modernization in the next decade. Transport facilities must be provided as an integral part of the project to this airport. Only such measures can give the Moscow metropolis the opportunity to integrate its hub airport into the rapidly expanding global air transportation network." In addition, the policy of a double hub airport, which provides for the simultaneous development of Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo, and even more so of a triple one - Sheremetyevo - Domodedovo - Vnukovo, will be very unprofitable and may lead to the failure of the hopes placed on it. The choice of Moscow's main hub airport should be made primarily on the basis of capacity prospects. Taking into account the available information on the state of the infrastructure and the results of the research, experts came to the conclusion that the only long-term solution for choosing a hub airport in the Moscow metropolis should be the choice of Domodedovo, since this airport, due to its characteristics of the throughput of runways and terminals, is able to cope with turning into a nodal one. In 2000-2001 GPI and Research Institute of Civil Aviation "Aeroproekt" with the participation of a number of other organizations carried out work entitled "Scheme for the integrated development of the Moscow aviation hub until 2015." It envisaged the creation of a hub airport in Sheremetyevo after the construction of a new airport complex, and subsequently the organization of a second hub airport in Domodedovo. In 2002, Baltstrakh-M LLC issued an information and analytical report “On the concept of development of UIA airports.” This work examines the place of airports in the air transport system, trends in the development of UIA airports and their competitors. It is noted that the “Scheme for the integrated development of the Moscow hub until 2015.” assumes, essentially, to leave everything as it is, renovating, improving, and modernizing the existing infrastructure for servicing air passengers. In other words, to obtain a unique principle of operation of a multiport hub, not found anywhere else in the world, although all world experience suggests that accepting this principle means putting an end to the prospect of turning one of the UIA airports into a full-fledged hub. In 2002, ZAO NPO Progresstech, commissioned by the Ministry of Transport of the Moscow Region, carried out research work in which, based on the results of 2001, taking into account the environmental impact of the aircraft on the adjacent territory, the condition was assessed and certain aspects of the development of UIA airports were determined. Based on the results of the research, the following conclusion was made that, in terms of its capabilities, volumes and cost efficiency, and taking into account the reservation of significant land areas, Domodedovo Airport has the greatest development prospects for a long period, where it is most advisable to create a hub airport at UIA. The materials "Moscow Airports - A Look into the Future" of the Information Portal "AviaPort Ru - Aviation First Hand" (2005) provide current provisions on the development of the Moscow aviation hub. It is noted that the concept of a hub, i.e. a transit air hub with a share of transfer passengers measured in tens of percent can be associated with either one airport, if it is the only one in the city, or with an airport complex of several nearby airports managed by a single company. In the latter case, all airports of such an air hub work to attract as many transfer passengers as possible to the air hub as a whole. In this attraction they do not compete, but complement each other in achieving a common goal. Therefore, the Moscow air transport hub as an economic entity with an agreed commercial policy for the airports that form it and a strategy for their development, aimed at obtaining the maximum total economic effect, did not exist after the collapse of the USSR. He is not there now. UIA is a collective definition of the property complex of 4 Moscow airports, each of which survives as best it can. And this must always be kept in mind when UIA is compared with the multi-airport hubs of London, Paris, Washington, New York, Rome, and Milan. Without exception, all Western air hubs have an owner, and he is alone. This is the company that operates the air hub or both owns and operates it. The main concern of this owner is to attract as many passengers and cargo as possible and the airlines carrying them. The main object of his attention are those users of his services who have a choice, who can use someone else's airport (air hub) or another mode of transport. If the goal is to become a hub like London, Paris, Frankfurt or Amsterdam, you just need to follow the commercial logic of the airport business. This logic is well known: Moscow airports should develop in such a way that they become more attractive for transfer air passengers than airports in competing cities. Only by drawing away the largest possible share of transfer passengers from them can we count on a multiple increase in passenger traffic through Moscow. What needs to be done for this? The answer to this question will be given by any passenger who flies to a Moscow airport only for a transfer: make sure that I can make a transfer at one airport, quickly and without hassle. The simplest, cheapest and fastest way to solve this problem is to concentrate services on the largest possible number of regular passenger flights, both domestic and international, at one airport and in one terminal. This is the only way to minimize the transfer time of a large number of passengers and their luggage from flight to flight, to do this with maximum convenience for passengers and minimal costs for transfer organizers. If possible! In Milan this was possible. Therefore, the municipality of Milan in 1998, within six months, transferred all regular passenger flights from Linate Airport, located 7 km from the city (11 km to Vnukovo) to Malpensa Airport, located 53 km from Milan (23 km to Domodedovo), which has two independent runways . The reason is that Linate Airport had one runway and was noisy, which reduced its transfer quality to a minimum. Therefore, it only served charter flights and one regular flight - Rome - Milan. As a result of this reshuffle, already in the next 1999, the growth rate of the total number of passengers at the two Milan airports doubled. In New York, London, and Paris, it is impossible to do the same, because none of the 2 or 3 airports historically formed near these cities is able to handle the entire flow of passengers alone. And none of them can be expanded - there is no free territory. Therefore, the municipalities of these cities are doing everything possible to help the companies managing air hubs organize the fast and comfortable transfer of those transfer passengers whose arrival and departure flights are forced to be served at different airports. Moscow has a unique advantage over the world's multi-airport hubs. It has an airport that can handle its regular passenger traffic, with the prospect of manifold growth. Such an airport is Domodedovo Airport. The ongoing redistribution of passenger flows between Moscow airports in favor of Domodedovo is a natural process of concentration of regular passenger traffic in one airport best suited for this. There is no competitor to it in UIA due to the best transfer potential of this airport. The arrival of each new carrier at Domodedovo increases the attractiveness of this airport for those long-haul carriers that are currently served at Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo. The more flights, domestic and international, will be served at Domodedovo, the more opportunities there will be for an increasing number of transfer passengers to transfer to the desired flight at one airport (see Fig. 3.3). The faster this process goes, the sooner Moscow will turn into a full-fledged air hub.

Fig.3.3. Number of destinations represented in the world's leading hubs, units.

The process that has begun will end when the majority of regular passenger flights to and from Moscow are concentrated at Domodedovo. The completion date will be determined by the capacity of the airport's main technological facilities: the airfield, the passenger terminal, the city-airport route and the Moscow air traffic control system.

3.5. Development trends of the Moscow aviation hub

The following conclusions can be drawn about the development paths of the Moscow aviation hub: ? The development of the Moscow aviation hub will occur as part of the Russian air transport system and in accordance with trends in the global development of air transportation and airport activities. There is a steady growth trend in UIA passenger traffic. ? The geopolitical position of Moscow and the Moscow aviation hub (the capital of the Russian Federation, the largest transport hub of the country and the CIS, the possibility of using UIA airports by European and domestic carriers when flying aircraft from Western Europe to the Far Eastern and South Asian regions, etc.) simply obliges UIA to achieve significant increasing the number of transit and, especially, transfer passengers and qualitatively improving their service at airports. ? Further development of the Moscow aviation hub can go one of two ways: a) transforming UIA airports into a single hub with the role of a hub. This is only possible if all UIA airports are managed by a single management company and their competition is eliminated. At the same time, there is a need for appropriate transport infrastructure between UIA airports and the organization of passenger and baggage transportation. b) Gradual formation at one of the UIA hub airports, which ultimately seems more realistic.

At the same time, there is no doubt that the directives The hub cannot be entered using instructions.

This is a gradual and long-term process in which the majority of scheduled passenger traffic (approximately 60% of UIA), both domestic and international, will move to the hub airport. Each stage of this process should be formed taking into account the protection of domestic carriers and, above all, in the international transport market. At the same time, specialization of other UIA airports is possible with the redistribution of other types of transportation activities (cargo transportation services, charter flights, business aviation flights, private flights, etc.). In all likelihood, implementing such a program will also require coordinated management of these processes in a single body, without disrupting the work of existing airport management teams by providing airports with appropriate autonomy. ? With any development option for UIA, there is an urgent issue of improving airport and transport infrastructures, which are directly related to improving the quality of passenger service and cargo handling. At one of the conferences at the Federal Air Transport Agency on the topic: “Tasks and scope of activity of the FAVT,” it was noted that a hub is not an air hub, but a technology. A hub can only become an airport that provides connections for flights from different directions in the shortest possible time intervals and with maximum convenience for passengers. In Europe, for example, such airports have long been the English Heathrow and the German Frankfurt am Main. A hub is a kind of transshipment base that does not require the passenger to move to another airport, or additional check-in for the flight and re-registration of baggage. All this is embedded in one technological chain from the point of departure to the point of arrival. According to the consulting company Informost: “The hub is a good system, it really works in some regions of the world. But to implement it, first of all, we must not forget that the hub is not an airport as such, but a transport system that includes an airport and an airline ". Each component of the system must perform its own tasks. Behind the airport - providing flight connections and servicing transit passengers. The airline must have an extensive route network and a special type of schedule that allows flights to connect from different points. As for the Moscow aviation hub, it is preparing for the most difficult role of a multiport hub, the implementation of which is associated with a number of insurmountable difficulties, including international transport, the timing of transfers, the organization of connections, baggage delivery, etc. In practice, this means that Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports continue to compete with each other, selecting passengers and negating the geographical, strategic and economic advantages of Moscow in the struggle for transfer passengers with other hub airports in the world, i.e. to the detriment of UIA as a whole. If favorable conditions are created, the number of transfer passengers on international and domestic routes can, according to rough estimates, reach 15% by 2020, and each such passenger brings double benefits to the airport. As a positive example, we can cite the German regional airport Munich, which is close in terms of air traffic volumes (23 million passengers) to our largest airports, where the number of transfer passengers is 27%, although the geographical, economic and political opportunities of Munich are incomparably smaller than those of Moscow. The higher the level of development, the higher the speed of information exchange and the speed of technical progress. Currently, only air transportation can offer the highest speed of movement on a sufficient scale (see Fig. 3.4).

Fig.3.4. Dependence of aviation mobility on the degree of development of the state

In turn, air transport in countries with modern hub airports with a developed route network becomes a catalyst for economic growth. According to ICAO, about 4.5% of global GDP can be attributed to air transport and the effect on production in the aviation industry itself, or in the sphere of consumer goods and services. At the same time, on average in the United States, $100 of a product produced in air transport initiates $325 of additional demand in other industries. According to the 2006 ICAO Airport Economics Manual, when assessing investments in airport development, it is necessary to take into account the multiplier effect of the economic impact of improving airport performance indicators on the economic development of a city, region, or country. The main indicator of economic development is gross domestic product. The influence of the development of air transport on the country's economy, which is not directly related to the development of the air transport industry, is called in Western literature the catalytic economic effect. There are a number of works devoted to assessing the development of air transport on the country’s economy. Most researchers come to the conclusion that there is a positive relationship between the development of the air transport industry and the level of economic activity in the country in the long term. It is possible to identify a number of channels through which the development of air transport (including increasing airport capacity) can influence the country’s GDP (see Fig. 3.5). Channels of influence can be divided into two groups: factors influencing aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The impact of the development of transport infrastructure on GDP from the side of aggregate demand occurs through an increase in export/import costs as a result of the influx/outflow of tourists and changes in trade volumes. Moreover, aviation is used mainly for the transportation of high-tech goods (pharmaceuticals, computer equipment, etc.) As international experience shows, the quality of transport infrastructure has a significant impact on international trade. First, poor infrastructure quality increases overall transport costs. Although accurate and realistic calculations are difficult to make, there are a number of studies that attempt to do so. For example, the negative impact of a lack of infrastructure on domestic income can be assessed through the fact that improving infrastructure in the services sector reduces losses by 154 million. or 4% of world GNP (domestic national product) 1.

Fig.3.5. Economic catalytic effect of air transport development on GDP

Second, public infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, influences trade through its influence on comparative advantage. Yeaple & Golub2 quantified the extent to which infrastructure influences international differences in total factor productivity (TFP) at the industry level. Thus, the provision of road infrastructure is a significant factor in productivity growth and country production specialization. In the work of World Trade Organization experts Nordas and Piermartini (H. K. Nordеs and R. Piermartini) “Infrastructure and Trade”3, based on an assessment of the gravity model, the influence of the quality of infrastructure (air and sea, ground transport, as well as telecommunications and necessary time for customs clearance of goods) on the total volume of trade between the two countries as a whole and for individual industries (automotive and textile industries, production of ready-made clothing). The study argues that the quality of infrastructure is an important factor in trading performance. Better infrastructure for sea, land and air transport is associated with greater trade volume. The quality of ports has the most significant impact on trade. Trade with an exporting country that doubles the number of airports leads to an increase in bilateral trade in the future by 15%.

From the supply side GDP growth rates are divided into those attributable to increases in the use of factors of production—usually increases in capital (i.e., investment) and labor (employment)—and those that cannot be explained by observed changes in factor use 4. Therefore, the unexplained portion of GDP growth is considered to represent an increase in total factor productivity (producing more output from the same inputs) or is an indicator of technological progress as broadly defined.

The identity of the system of accounting for economic growth factors is written as:

where GY is the growth of real GDP, GK is the growth of fixed assets, and GL is the growth of employment, “A” is the growth of total factor productivity, “b” and “c” are the shares of capital and labor in income.

The development of transport infrastructure affects all three components.

Investments

The impact of public investment on growth rates is different from that of private investment 5. Accordingly, the following modification is introduced into function (1):

where GP is the growth rate of public investment

According to American economists, a 1% increase in public investment leads to an increase in labor productivity by 0.15% - 0.3%. And the corresponding change in both private and public investment is 0.35%. However, the return on public investment also depends on the direction in which it is used. There are a number of American works devoted separately to the study of the impact of increasing airport capacity on the economic development of the region6. On average, an analysis of panel data for American states showed that, other things being equal, an increase in the number of runways by 1% increases GRP by 0.9% (if the runway length is less than 3 km). An analysis by David Canning and Marianne Fay of transport infrastructure in 96 countries found that the higher the level of investment (and total capital stock) in the transport infrastructure sector, the higher the national productivity of social capital. 7 A transport network is often one of the key factors influencing investment decisions of private companies. A. Marshall also wrote that when making a decision to open production in a particular country, firms, incl. They also focus on minimizing their transport costs: transporting goods, people and ideas. Despite the development of information technology, personal meetings continue to play a significant role in business, especially in the initial stages of cooperation 8. Modern econometric studies9 on the countries of the European Union have shown that, according to Oxford Economic Forecasting and Eurocontrol Experimental Centre, a 10% increase in the use of air transport in Europe will lead to in the long term to an increase in the average annual growth rate of investment by 1.6%, all other things being equal. As a result, productivity, i.e. GDP per capita will grow by 0.6% (see Figure 3.6).

Rice. 3.6. The relationship between the volume of investment and the use of air transport as a percentage of GDP (24 EU countries)

Source: Economic Catalytic Effects of Air transport in Europe // Oxford Economic Forecasting

Busy.

Direct business communication has greater effectiveness, the power of emotional impact and suggestion than indirect communication; socio-psychological mechanisms directly operate in it. In the world, every fourth person who goes on a trip - short and long, short and long - does so for work reasons. This is the so-called business travel or business tourism. Business tourism is one of the most important conditions for a successful business. According to foreign experts, by 2020 the number of international business trips will triple - from 564 million to 1.6 billion per year. At the same time, the turnover of this sector will increase 5 times - from 400 billion US dollars to 2.0 trillion. According to the American organization Business Tourism Round Table, an increase in turnover in this area by one billion dollars leads to the creation of 100 thousand new jobs.

Total Factor Productivity .

Increasing the volume of provision of transport services, incl. aviation, increases the size of the markets in which companies operate10. Which in turn leads to economies of scale and more efficient allocation of resources. The development of air transport allows companies to rationalize the distribution of production. Good air connections improve market access for companies, which increases competition between companies and reduces monopolization of markets. This forces companies to use more modern technologies. Moreover, dynamic effects may arise if improvements in air transport services lead to increased returns on investments in other sectors and increase companies' spending on innovation, or create efficient business communications and networks. Foreign investment is a key channel for attracting new technologies to the country. In general, all of the above factors increase the total productivity of factors (Fig. 3.7).

Fig.3.7. Air transport use and total factor productivity (24 EU countries).

Thus, thanks to the multiplicative effect of indirect effects, according to various estimates, a 10% increase in air transport services leads to GDP growth in economically developed countries from 0.6%11 to 1.9%12.

4. Forecast of air transportation at UIA until 2030

4.1. general information

The transportation forecast was made by Progresstech LLC using previously completed work: ? "Justification of investments for the project "Development of the Moscow Aviation Hub. Construction of a new runway complex (Runway-3) at Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Region. Progresstech LLC, 2007; ? "Master plan for the development of Sheremetyevo International Airport for the period until 2030." Scott & Wilson, 2008 ; ? "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo Airport. Federal property" (1st stage of construction), Progresstech LLC, 2008; and also taking into account the comments of the Federal State Institution "Glavgosexpertiza of Russia" on the work "Justification of investments in the project" Development of the Moscow Aviation Hub. Construction of a new runway complex (Runway-3) at Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Region" and on the work "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo Airport. Objects of federal property." The work used data from the Statistical Department of the Moscow Region, the Transport and Clearing Chamber of the Russian Federation, and the Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo International Airports.

4.2. Economic development of Russia

The development of the Russian economy at the end of 2008 and in 2009 was marked by adaptation to the conditions of an acute economic crisis caused by both external (the global economic crisis, falling demand and prices for raw materials) and internal factors (the economy coming out of investment overheating) and not was uniform. A sharp deterioration in foreign economic conditions, a drop in exports, capital outflow and a suspension of bank credit led to a significant reduction in investment activity and a decline in industry in the first half of 2009. By mid-2009, the economic downturn in Russia had stopped and from June to December there was consistent growth in the Russian economy. Overall, in 2009, GDP decreased by 7.9 percent. The decline in GDP in 2009 is largely due to the collapse in investment demand. Investments in fixed capital decreased by 17.0 percent. The collapse of the existing system of investment in the construction industry led to a lack of funding and the freezing of most planned projects. One of the main trends in 2009 was the curtailment of construction work at industrial facilities. One of the main factors in reversing the dynamics of the recession and transitioning to recovery growth was the improvement in the economic situation in the main regions of the world and the effect of stimulating fiscal measures, which began to manifest itself in the second half of the year.

Table 4.1. Growth rates of key economic indicators (seasonality excluded)* by quarter, as a percentage of the previous period

Table 4.2. Main indicators of economic development of the Russian Federation in 2007-2009.

Fig.4.1. Dynamics of gross domestic product with the exception of * seasonal and calendar factors (2) and without exception (1), January 1995 - 100%

A large-scale decline in production is the main trend of the year. The decline in production forced companies to cut costs: 2009 was a year of mass layoffs. Based on the results of a sample survey of the Russian population on employment problems, the average annual number of unemployed, calculated using the ILO methodology, amounted to 6.3 million people in 2009 (8.4% of the economically active population), which is 1.5 million people more than in 2008. The highest unemployment levels were observed in February and March (9.4% and 9.2%, respectively); by the middle of the year, as the economy recovered and measures to support employment were intensified, the situation in the labor market began to improve. The number of officially registered unemployed on average in 2009 increased by 684 thousand people and amounted to 2.1 million people (2.8% of the economically active population). The rate of underemployment remains high. According to the monitoring of the situation on the labor market in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, carried out by the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia, as of December 30, 2009, the total number of workers who are idle due to the fault of the administration, working part-time, as well as workers who were granted leave on the initiative administration, exceeded 1.6 million people. The growth of real disposable cash income of the population at the end of 2009 amounted to 1.9 percent. At the same time, real wages decreased by 2.8 percent. Figure 4.2 shows the growth rates of significant indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the period from 1996 to 2009.

Fig.4.2. Growth rates of significant indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation

4.3. Russian economic development programs

In order to take into account the impact of the global economic crisis on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the near future, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation developed a “Draft scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the planning period 2012 and 2013." The calculation of the indicators in the forecast was carried out taking into account the development trends of the world economy and foreign economic conditions, as well as the results of the development of the Russian economy for January-April 2010. In general, at the beginning of 2010, the trend of economic recovery that began in the middle of last year continued. In the first quarter of 2010, GDP growth slowed down somewhat as a result of weak investment demand, but already in April, growth acceleration was observed in most macroeconomic indicators. On an annual basis, GDP in the first quarter of 2010, according to preliminary estimates by Rosstat, grew by 2.9% against a fall of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009, and in January-April, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, GDP increased by 3. 5% compared to the corresponding period of last year The parameters of the socio-economic development forecast for 2010-2013 were developed according to two main options - options 1b and 2b, which are based on hypotheses regarding the sustainable recovery of the global economy, ensured by the expected growth of the economies of the USA, China, and Southeast Asia and India, and a moderate increase in Urals oil prices to 78-79 US dollars per barrel in 2012-2013. Conservative option 1b was developed in the context of continued risks of low investment demand, weak growth in consumer demand while maintaining wages of public sector workers at the 2009 level, as well as a slow recovery in credit activity. Annual economic growth rates may reach 2.6-3.1 percent. Moderately optimistic option 2b reflects a faster economic recovery as a result of the fullest realization of its growth potential based on increased business efficiency, increased bank lending, as well as stimulation of economic growth and modernization. In 2011-2013, a more active government policy is being implemented aimed at developing transport infrastructure, science and technology, housing construction and housing and communal services, regional development, and a restrained policy for regulating electricity tariffs. Along with the rationalization of the system of budgetary institutions after 2010, it is planned to index wages in the budgetary sector in proportion to inflation. GDP growth in 2010-2013 is projected at 3.4-4.2 percent. Additionally, options with different dynamics of oil prices and growth rates of the global economy have been worked out. Option 1a was developed in the context of a decline in the price of Urals oil in 2012-2013 to 68-62 US dollars per barrel due to a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.7-3.3 percent. The option takes into account the risks associated with both lower growth rates of demand for hydrocarbons and risks associated with an increase in oil supply from Iraq, an increase in shale gas production and an increase in spot gas sales, which could lead to an accelerated fall in gas prices relative to other commodities. Adaptation of the Russian economy to this pessimistic scenario for the development of the global economy will require a significant depreciation of the ruble and will be associated with a slowdown in growth rates. Option 2c reflects a more optimistic hypothesis of the global economy emerging from the crisis, a higher level of demand for energy resources and the restoration of the positive trend in oil prices to $85 in 2012 and to $90 per barrel in 2013. In 2012, GDP reaches a new maximum: in 2013, GDP is expected to exceed the pre-crisis level of 2008 by 6.8%. GDP in 2010 is projected at 3.1-4%, in 2011-2012 - 2.6-3.4%, in 2013 - 3.1-4.2 percent. Reaching the upper limit corresponds to the conditions of option 2b, proposed as the main one for budget calculations. In 2010, domestic demand in real terms will increase by 6.8%, primarily due to the restoration of industrial reserves, as well as due to increased consumption supported by rising real incomes of the population. In 2011-2013, the growth of domestic demand will slow down due to the exhaustion of the recovery growth of reserves and will amount to 5-6% per year, while the role of investment demand will increase. It is assumed that the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia will exhaust their influence in the short term and from 2014 Russia will reach the pace of development laid down in the long-term development program. The economic forecasts used in this work are considered conservative. This reflects both the long-term outlook of the forecasts and the significant risks inherent in the Russian economy. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil, gas and other natural resources. At the same time, it is relatively poorly diversified, which means that any negative trends in these industries will immediately have a significant impact on future economic growth. In 2009, the volume of scheduled passenger traffic by airlines from member states of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decreased by 3.1% compared to 2008.

4.4. Passenger traffic forecast for UIA

A special feature of compiling a forecast for the airports of the Moscow aviation hub is the fact that these airports account for about 45% of the total passenger traffic of the Russian Federation. Moreover, this trend has continued over the past five years. The development of the transportation forecast at UIA until 2030 was carried out taking into account the crisis that hit the financial and economic system of the world, including Russia, and was carried out using materials from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation and leading economists of Russia. At the first stage, traffic forecasting was carried out for the air hub as a whole, using the same approaches and models as for individual independent airports. When developing a forecast for industry development, the following materials were used in the work: ? "Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030", approved by Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 22, 2008 No. 1734-r; ? "The concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation", MEDT, October 2007; ? "Main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020-2030" - Appendix to the "Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation", MEDT, August 2008; ? "Draft scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the planning period of 2012 and 2013", MED, June 2010. . ? ICAO (Manual of Air Traffic Forecasting, Second Edition, 8991-AT/722/2, 1985 The economic situation in Russia on the eve of the crisis was characterized by economists as follows. Modern Russia is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Moreover, this dependence has gone very deep into the very structure of the economy This can be clearly seen from the example of the dollar exchange rate against the ruble. In the spring of 2003, the dollar exchange rate in Russia went down. However, the reason for this phenomenon was not the devaluation of the dollar on world markets, but an excess of dollars among Russian exporters of raw materials, who are forced to sell them on the open market. This suggests that today in Russia there is no problem of investment “tying up" money outside the fuel, energy and raw materials complex. In other words, Russia not only did not develop its economy due to a lack of investment resources - it has already lost the opportunity to develop investment process in the presence of free money. Such a situation in the event of a crisis will inevitably lead to a severe recession and a very significant drop in living standards and an increase in unemployment. The budget formation system in our country is also built exclusively on the exploitation of the raw materials sector with its export opportunities. The level of taxation of producers is too high for them to legally develop their business, which leads to restrictions in the investment process and the transition to “gray” work schemes that exclude the payment of taxes. In addition, the country's government's refusal to implement any strategic plans for economic development and the complete lack of responsibility for the work being done (or, conversely, not being done) has led to an incredible increase in corruption. Under these conditions, Russia entered a financial and economic crisis that affected the entire world economy. The duration and consequences of it in general on the global economic system and, in particular, in Russia, economists and analysts have not yet given a definite answer. In this regard, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has developed two main options for the development of the Russian economy for the next three years from 2010 to 2013, which formed the basis for the further possible development of the socio-economic situation in the country. The first option (1b), as mentioned above, reflects the trend of socio-economic development of Russia, as a conservative option. It provides for maintaining low oil price dynamics in 2010-2013 at the level of 75-79 US dollars per barrel in accordance with the parameters included in the budget guidelines. In 2010-2013, GDP growth is projected to be 3.1%, which will not fully compensate for the decline of 2009. The second option (2b), a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the Russian economy, is considered as a more probable forecast option, taking into account more favorable foreign economic conditions. In 2010, oil prices are expected to stabilize at $75 per barrel and then rise to $78-79 per barrel in 2011-2013. The projected GDP growth rate over three years will be 3.4-4.2%, which will allow it to exceed the pre-crisis level in 2013. The development of the forecast until 2030 was based on the following assumptions. The modern economic model existed due to the constant expansion of sales markets and the “dollar zone”. The current crisis is associated, among other things, with the physical exhaustion of the possibility of expanding these territories. The development of the American economy occurred due to its pumping with cheap credit funds (the total US debt (state, corporate, private) at the beginning of 2009 exceeded 50 trillion. dollars). To prevent excess money supply from entering the real sector and its “utilization,” financial bubbles of mortgages and the stock market were invented and inflated. The development of the global economic crisis will, within a few years, lead to a partial or complete change in the existing system of economic relations and the loss by the US dollar of the function of a single measure of value - the EMC. One of the possible consequences of the economic crisis will be the division of today's single global economic space into a number of autonomous economic zones. At the same time, the costs of producing any product in Russia due to its geographical location are significantly higher than in any other country in the world (with rare exceptions). As a result, any goods produced in Russia, including agricultural ones, when compared with foreign analogues, lose in terms of revenue/cost ratio. Consequently, domestic goods are less efficient, i.e. with the same investments, they bring the investor less profit than their foreign counterparts. The lower efficiency of the domestic economy is also determined by the fact that the influx of foreign capital into the country is carried out not by investing in the creation and development of domestic industry, but by providing loans, since the interest on loans provided is fixed and does not depend on the profitability of the recipient. As a result of the collapse of industry and the huge outflow of industrial and financial capital from the country in post-Soviet times, exit from the crisis without a sharp decline in living standards is impossible. Therefore, in the future (until 2030), in principle, two development options are possible, which are presented in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3. Development options

Option A may lead to a deterioration in the Russian economy, so it is excluded from consideration. Thus, the government will be guided in its activities by option B. The detailing of this option, taking into account the short-term forecast presented by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in two options, will be considered when developing a traffic forecast for UIA and Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo and Vnukovo airports for the long-term period until 2030. Given the falling export revenues, we have no other options for the development of the economic situation other than the two listed. At the moment, the country has all the signs that option B is being implemented. It is difficult to assess whether this is being done consciously or is a simple coincidence, but the result of these actions is already noticeable - a decrease in effective demand, a decrease in imports, a stop and reduction in production, growth unemployment. Based on this, it is possible to formulate strategies that will be followed by the main market participants: the population, business, government, until the start of radical economic reforms in the event of further implementation of this option. Population: will reduce consumption by reducing spending on durable goods; Business: ? will begin to curtail and mothball production, reducing to a minimum the costs of maintaining it; ? if possible, will switch to producing more cheap and simple consumer goods; ? in mechanical engineering the focus will be on the production of cheap multifunctional agricultural machinery; ? In the automotive industry, the focus will be on the production of cheap, highly capable vehicles. To mitigate the economic situation as much as possible, state bodies must resolve several fundamental issues: develop a viable mechanism for lending to domestic production; ? to relieve social tension, ensure the employment of citizens who have temporarily lost their jobs due to the shutdown of production or receive a minimum income, preferably without mass migration and without a significant increase in the expenditure side of the state budget; ? solve the issue of financing the state budget deficit without foreign currency borrowings. Based on the above listed behavioral strategies of the main market players, the following assumptions can be made regarding the development trends of macro-indicators that determine the general socio-economic situation in society. The dynamics of development of GDP and real disposable income of the population, reflecting the standard of living of the population, will be quite moderate without any upswings due to the extremely difficult situation in the economy at the current point in time. However, as the economy recovers, both GDP and real incomes of the population will grow. The presented growth rates for GDP and real income are in good agreement with the previously developed forecast of these indicators by JSC Center for Management and Legal Initiatives Strategy. Depending on the economic development option, JSC Strategy has determined for 2020 a GDP growth range from 3.1 to 6.7%, and the increase in real disposable income - from 3.5 to 6.5%. The forecast of passenger traffic was made on the basis of the ICAO methodology. The coefficient of reduction of the GDP gradient to passenger traffic was adopted as 1.79 according to the recommendations for forecasting air traffic of the ICAO Taking into account the realities of the time , in accordance with the above methodology, three options have been developed for the development of passenger traffic at UIA until 2030. Below, in Table 4.4, 3 options for forecasting UIA traffic are presented (pessimistic, average and optimistic)

Table 4.4. UIA passenger traffic forecast, million people.

The cargo traffic forecast was not fulfilled, since the runways of cargo aircraft at UIA airports constitute only about 5% of the total number of runways and do not significantly affect their capacity.

The Russian air transport complex is a technologically, organizationally and economically complex structure designed to meet the needs of economic agents for high-quality services for the transportation of goods and passengers. The air transport complex includes airlines and air operators, a network of airports (aerodromes), an air traffic management system, as well as a system for training and retraining personnel for air transport (Figure 3).

Figure 2.1 - Scheme of the structure of the air transport complex

Currently, the Russian air transport complex includes more than 180 commercial airlines and 188 general aviation operators using about 6 thousand aircraft, 350 airfields of various classes and about 650 landing sites. Aircraft maintenance is supported by more than 180 organizations, civil aviation flights are provided by 118 centers

Unified air traffic management system (EU ATM), covering over 500 thousand km of domestic air routes. Personnel training and scientific support for the air transport complex are carried out by 3 higher educational institutions, 12 secondary specialized educational institutions, over 100 training centers, 6 research organizations.

There are over 1,000 organizations operating in the industry, most of which are joint-stock companies.

Air transport accounts for more than 20% of the total passenger turnover in intercity transportation; the contribution of air transport in ensuring international transportation is even more significant: it transports over 80% of passengers in international traffic, or 97% of international passenger turnover.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, in 2005, out of 1,900 available licenses for regular transportation across the Russian Federation, only 35% were used in the summer, and just over 23% in the winter. The result was an increase in the gap between the passenger turnover of the leaders and other enterprises in the industry, and the combined share of Aeroflot, Siberia, Krasair, Rossiya, Transaero and UTAir airlines in 2005 reached 60% in total passenger turnover and 73% in total revenue.

It should be noted that, largely thanks to the development of industry leaders, since 2001 the Russian air transportation market began to show the first signs of stabilization. Subsequent years were characterized by an increase in passenger turnover of air transport. The growth of the Russian economy and the increase in household incomes are not least reflected in the frequency of air travel. Modern business conditions and the development of tourism infrastructure increase the workload of companies on existing flights and contribute to the development of new routes. On average in the period 2000–2006. Russian airlines annually increased the volume of passenger transportation by 10%, with the annual growth of the country's economy by an average of 6.7%9.

In addition, the growth rate of the Russian air transportation market significantly exceeded the dynamics of the global market. In 2006, passenger turnover of Russian civil aviation increased by 9.6% and reached 93.9 billion pkm. During the year, airlines carried 38 million passengers, which is 8.3% more than in 2005.

The Russian air freight market is developing at a more moderate pace. Over the year, airlines carried only 1.8% more cargo and mail. The low growth rate of the cargo market is largely due to the reduction in cargo transportation on domestic routes (-1.8%), while on international routes in 2006 the growth rate was 6%.

The growth in the passenger transportation segment was also mainly due to an increase in work on international routes (+6.6% and 16.3% in passenger traffic). The development of the domestic market was more moderate. However, despite this, the process of increasing competition in the domestic market continues. The growth rates of most leading airlines grew during this period, significantly exceeding the average market rate. Thus, according to the results of 2006, the leading position in terms of growth rates is occupied by Transaero airline - 36%, UTair - 28%, S7 Airlines - 16.4%11.

The positions of leaders on domestic and international airlines have remained unchanged over recent years. The first two lines of the ranking in terms of passenger turnover are occupied by Aeroflot RA and Sibir Airlines. The positions of leaders change by segment. Aeroflot specializes in international routes, where it is far ahead of other Russian airlines in terms of volume of work. In our opinion, we can highlight the main trends in the development of Russian aviation in modern economic conditions.

Contributing to the growth of air travel: global economic growth; growth of income of the population; reduction of the average tariff (in basic prices); increase in the percentage of seat occupancy; increase in labor productivity; the emergence of new, increasingly cost-effective types of aircraft; increasing aircraft utilization; reduction of airlines' unit costs.

Slowing Air Travel Growth: Rising Puel Prices (According to IATA, if oil prices had remained at 2003 levels ($30), global aviation profits would have been $45.6 billion, more than the industry's losses over the last five years years; growth rates of related industries lagging behind the needs of airlines (orders to aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus in 2005, according to experts, will reach 1,900 aircraft, and this number of orders will exceed the record level of 1989 by 25%).

Along with this, it should be taken into account that in addition to the influence of global trends on the development of Russian aviation, internal factors have a significant influence: the aging of the existing domestic aircraft fleet, its low fuel efficiency; crisis in the domestic aircraft industry, lack of supply of new aircraft; the high cost of Western-made aircraft, including high customs duties and VAT on their import; shortage of qualified flight and technical personnel for new Western aircraft, lack of training centers in Russia and the high cost of training abroad; low competition (or lack thereof) in the airport services market; administrative barriers in the international transportation market.

Further, we note that according to IATA research, in emerging markets, the growth in the number of passengers and cargo is approximately twice as high as the growth in GDP. According to world statistics, the frequency of air transport use, which characterizes demand, in stable conditions directly depends on the level of the country’s economy, which, in turn, can be assessed through the level of GDP per capita. In developed countries, with a GDP level of 15–30 thousand dollars per person, the frequency of air transport use is in the range of 0.8–1.6 flights per year per capita. In the USA, Norway and Switzerland, where per capita GDP exceeds $30 thousand, there are from 2 to 3.2 flights per year. In developing countries, depending on the level of GDP and the characteristics of the geographical location, the frequency of flights varies between 0.05–0.5 flights per year. At the same time, the Russian indicator for the country as a whole is close to 0.4, but regionally it ranges from 0 to 0.513.

In the long term, three main scenarios for the development of the Russian market can be considered, which are determined based on the forecast value of GDP and the growth rate of flight frequency.

In accordance with the first option, by 2020 the level of passenger traffic will reach the level recorded in 1990. At the same time, the annual growth rate of passenger turnover will be 6.5%. The second scenario assumes that the growth rate of passenger traffic will be twice the growth rate of Russian GDP. In this case, the annual increase in passenger traffic will be 8.8%, which will ensure an increase in the indicator by 2020 to 124 million passengers.

The third option provides for market growth by 11% annually. Here the assumption is taken as a basis that the growth in passenger traffic intensity will increase to the European level (per inhabitant). In this case, the passenger traffic of Russian carriers will be 168 million passengers.

If there is an increase in the volume of work of large airlines, then their growth will be facilitated not only by overall market growth, but also by a number of structural factors. In particular, the redistribution of passengers from smaller companies. It is obvious that the existence of a large number of airlines in Russia is a temporary phenomenon. Every year, the Russian aviation fleet is aging, and it is not possible for most airlines to modernize it due to low income. Thus, the reduction of air transport operators will continue. Some regional carriers that are of interest to larger airlines will sooner or later be absorbed, while others will simply be squeezed out by growing competition.

In addition, the development of the domestic market will be facilitated by increasing the availability of flights. Thus, starting from 2002, the dynamics of wage growth began to outpace the growth of tariffs, which has a positive effect on demand. Moreover, we note that the lower the tariff/average monthly salary ratio, the more the annual change in passenger turnover will differ from the change in GDP.

In our opinion, for greater clarity of the comparative analysis of the position of airlines on the market, you can select the largest enterprises in the Russian civil air transportation industry - Aeroflot-RAL, Transaero, Krasair, UTair, State Customs Committee Russia (including Pulkovo) and VIM-Avia. These airlines account for about 70% of all air traffic in Russian civil aviation and 35% of cargo traffic.

The listed airlines operate in the passenger air transportation market, but for some of them this is not the only type of activity. Aeroflot is the country's largest cargo carrier and receives compensation payments (“royalties”) from foreign airlines, UTair is the largest helicopter operator in the world, and some airlines receive income from the airport complexes that are part of them. Nevertheless, the bulk of the income of Russian airlines (about 70%) comes from passenger transportation, and, as data shows, regular and charter international flights.

The process of increasing competition in the industry continues, but at the end of 2006, Aeroflot (the leader in international flights) is noticeably ahead of its closest competitors. Traditionally, the first place in passenger turnover for 2006 was taken by Aeroflot with an indicator of 24.324 billion pkm (+8.0%), followed by Transaero (7.792 billion pkm, +47.5%) and UTair (3.666 billion pkm, +23.1%). ) also showed positive growth results, but in absolute terms they were significantly behind the leaders. The remaining companies under consideration showed negative dynamics - the leader of the air union AirUnion Krasair (-0.3%), State Customs Committee Russia together with Pulkovo (-7%) and VIM-Avia (-20.3%)

The growth of Transaero's passenger turnover is largely due to the significant addition to its aircraft fleet. Transaero replenished its fleet with 6 Boeing 747-200 aircraft with 468 seats, which it placed to serve the busiest resort destinations. As a result, it managed to demonstrate the highest growth rates - almost 39% in passenger traffic for the year. At the same time, Transaero has significant potential to increase passenger turnover in the future. As for UTair, the airline's current fleet allows for the possibility of increasing operational efficiency.

It is obvious that by 2012 Russian aircraft will almost completely exhaust their service life, and in conditions when the Tu-154M will be taken out of service, there will be an acute shortage of mainline aircraft. Most Russian airlines have submitted requests to add aircraft of both foreign and Russian origin, but these intentions have not yet been translated into actual contracts. In our opinion, one of the main reasons is the problem of attracting external financing, and in this case, airlines are implementing various strategies, mainly using the placement of bills and bonds, less often lending. At the same time, the capabilities of the domestic aviation industry seem insufficient for the current needs of Russian airlines. As of January 1, 2006, there were 180 air carriers registered in the country, of which less than 20 provide 50% of passenger traffic.

Taking into account the trends of consolidation of industry players, especially in the context of modernization of the aircraft fleet, by 2008–2009. the number of Russian airlines may reach 30. Small companies specializing primarily in one direction will be forced to accept the conditions of larger airlines, but even in these conditions the needs of domestic carriers will not be fully satisfied.

It should be noted that with record high demand for aircraft in the global market, there is an acute shortage of availability of both new and well-maintained secondary aircraft until 2010–2014, and even airlines with sufficient financial resources have not begun negotiations with manufacturers and leasing companies will experience problems with fleet renewal due to the lack of a sufficient number of aircraft on the market.

The main competitive advantage of any airline in the long term is an effectively implemented growth strategy, an increase in the fleet of foreign aircraft and further development of the brand, successful business projects, mergers and alliances, and restructuring programs. In this case, accordingly, the factors of competitiveness may be the following:

An extensive route network, which contributes from an economic point of view to increasing the efficiency of the airline’s fleet operation, and from a service point of view.

Increasing passenger traffic by providing maximum flight opportunities (for example, you can fly from Perm to China through Novosibirsk, and not through Moscow, as was the case before).

Convenient connections, high level of service: the schedule of new flights that airlines should introduce should be selected taking into account optimal connections with other flights that operate from air transport hubs (for example, while waiting for a flight or connecting flight, a passenger can spend time in the airline’s ultra-modern business lounges at modern airports);

Diversification of sales markets through a unique system of hubs.

Creation of modern and comfortable airports with the most efficient transfer technologies, high transport accessibility and the highest growth rates in passenger traffic; the presence of new air carriers (including foreign ones), which creates additional “feeder” traffic.

Upgrading and replenishing the fleet with new Western-made equipment, which increases the level of service, flight safety and reduces the airline’s fuel costs;

A flexible tariff system, aimed at all groups of clients, competitive even in comparison with “low-cost” companies (creating opportunities to always provide our clients with the most favorable tariffs, without reducing the service on board).

The synergistic effect from cooperation with companies that include enterprises providing a full range of aviation work and services: aircraft repair enterprises, logistics, training, tourism.

Obtaining additional income from the expansion of non-sales activities and the development of service infrastructure at airport complexes.

Development of a sales system, including online sales, as well as optimization of the agent network.

A targeted cost optimization policy, including tools to reduce costs for fuel, airport services, distribution, administrative staff, and allowing to maintain and increase the profitability of operations in the face of rising prices and increasing competition.

Using the most modern software and constantly working to increase the transparency of internal processes at various levels: managerial, technical, control.

Involving leading global consultants to develop business plans (for example, Roland Berger, SH&E, Lufthansa Consulting, Ernst&Young).

Ensuring flight safety based on relevant audits, including audits by IATA, FSNST, Boeing and Airbus. At the end of last year, S7 Airlines passed the first stage of the audit in accordance with international safety requirements IOSA (IATA Operational Safety Audit).

Development of an airline brand that is bright and memorable in the exclusively formalized industry of Russian passenger transportation.

The emergence and formation of the modern air transportation market began in Russia in 1991. Against the backdrop of general economic deregulation, privatization and price liberalization, in the air transportation sector over the course of several years there has been a transition from a planned system of economic relations to a market one.

This transition was carried out in difficult conditions (unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, mistakes in rapid reform) and, ultimately, had a negative impact on the development of the air services sector. From 1990 to 2000 There was a sharp decline in air transport performance indicators (Fig. 1), which had no analogues in the world history of civil aviation.

Picture 1.
Dynamics of passenger and cargo turnover (1930-2002)

Gradually, since 2000, the air transportation market began to regain lost ground. Today, it accounts for more than 12% of passenger turnover and less than 1% of freight turnover of general traffic in Russia (Fig. 2). Compared to other sectors, it is developing dynamically. From 1999 to 2002 Passenger turnover increased by 25%, cargo turnover - by 18%. At the same time, in terms of efficiency, airlines reached indicators that were not recorded in the previous seven years. At the end of 2002, the passenger load factor (calculated for all types of transportation) increased by 2.3% (to 68.7%), and the commercial load factor by 1.6% (to 59.9%).

Figure 2.

The industry's financial results in 2002 were positive. Civil aviation finished with a profit for the second year in a row. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the income of air carriers in 2002 amounted to about 146 billion rubles, which is 43% more than in 2001. Total profit for the same period increased to 9.5 billion rubles (6.5% of revenues).

However, the profit received mainly falls on the leading companies in the industry. 9.2 billion rubles were provided through the activities of Aeroflot, the State Air Traffic Control Corporation, the Pulkovo enterprise and Sheremetyevo airport. The remaining 300 million is distributed among 233 airlines, 450 airports, aircraft repair plants and fuel filling stations. It is obvious that the majority of companies in the industry are still unprofitable or do not carry out professional activities in the air transportation sector at all.

According to the Transport Clearing House, just over 70 of the 235 officially registered airlines reported their performance figures in 2002. At the same time, they account for almost 90% of all passenger traffic and 80% of transported mail and cargo.

Now large businesses are working much more actively than small regional carriers. The share of market leading airlines is increasing every year, and in 2002 the 10 largest companies controlled about 70% of the market in terms of passenger turnover (Table 1).

Table 1.
10 largest Russian airlines by passenger turnover

	Airline	Passenger turnover (thousand passenger km)		Passengers transported (persons)
	Aeroflot - Russian Airlines
	Krasnoyarsk Airlines
	Domodedovo Airlines
	Dalavia
	Ural Airlines
	Kavminvodyavia
	Kogalymavia

10 largest Russian airlines by cargo turnover

	Airline	Tonne-kilometers (thousand tkm)		Freight and mail transported (t)
	Aeroflot - Russian Airlines
	Krasnoyarsk Airlines
	Domodedovo Airlines
	Volga-Dnepr
	Dalavia
	Ural Airlines

According to the practice of global air transportation markets, this concentration indicator indicates high competition in the industry. Similar data for the national industries of European countries is much higher. The largest market participants in France and Germany account for about 80%-90% of the total market (Fig. 3).

Figure 3.
Concentration of transportation in the national markets of individual European countries, %

Consequently, the Russian market should be highly competitive. However, in reality, the degree of competition depends on the region and airline routes.

On domestic profitable routes there is a high congestion of routes; 8-10 air carriers operate on them with varying frequencies of flights. For example, on the line with the maximum maximum capacity Moscow-Sochi there are 11 airlines, Moscow-St. Petersburg - 6 airlines (Fig. 4). At the same time, in other directions, where air transportation is unprofitable due to the lack of effective demand, there is no real competition, and at best one or two regional air carriers carry out operations.

Figure 4.
The busiest Moscow air routes according to 2002 data

Only 35 Russian airlines generally operate on international routes (Table 2). Moreover, their activities are limited by the framework of intergovernmental agreements and the so-called “informal quotas,” that is, a preliminary agreement between government authorities and the airlines themselves on the right to carry out transportation on international routes.

A more regulated quota system also applies to domestic Russian airlines. Until recently, 26 domestic lines were allocated quotas, but at the end of July the Licensing Commission of the State Civil Aviation Service of Russia decided to reduce the number of lines from 26 to 15.

Table 2.
35 largest airlines by passenger turnover on international routes for 2002, thousand passengers. km

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines
Voronezh Joint-Stock Aircraft Manufacturing Company
Krasnoyarsk Airlines
AJT Air International
Ural Airlines
Transaero
EAST LINE Airlines
Airline Domodedovo Airlines
Continental Airlines
Kavminvodyavia
Airexpress cruise
Russia (GTK "Russia")
Airline "Enkor"
Aviation company "Atlant-Soyuz"
Dalavia
Aeroflot-Don
Airline "Eurasia"
Kogalymavia
Airline "Tatarstan"
Airlines 400
Bashkir Airlines
Vladivostok Air
Orenburg Airlines
Airline "Omskavia"
Ulyanovsk Higher Aviation School of Civil Aviation
Air lines of Kuban
Airlines "Shazpromavia"
UTair Airlines
Airline "Chernomoravia"
Aviaenergo

In the near future, Russian aviation authorities are not going to completely abandon regulation of the air transportation market, and the admission of any airline to the route will be carried out only by decision of the licensing commission. This means that barriers to entry into the market, both internal and external, remain, and the degree of competitiveness of destinations will also vary.

However, streamlining the work of Russian air carriers today is carried out in slightly different ways. Currently, government authorities are working to optimize the industry structure and business consolidation through licensing and certification of air carriers.

Figure 5.
Dynamics of the number of airlines in 1993-2002.

In some cases, companies leave the market when the state revokes their certificates due to non-compliance with certification requirements. This happened with 36 companies in 2001, with 42 companies in 2002 (Fig. 5). In the near future, the process of tightening certification and licensing rules will continue. At the state level, processes of mergers and consolidations will be encouraged. True, effective mechanisms have not yet been developed to stimulate the merger of airlines on a voluntary basis and the creation of alliances. And leaving the market itself is not always carried out in a natural market way. However, according to the plans of the Russian Ministry of Transport, by 2010 the total number of carriers in Russia will be at the level of 100-150 airlines.

In general, a reduction in the absolute number of carriers should have a positive impact on the growth of the competitiveness of domestic companies, and, as a result, contribute to the activation of aggregate consumer demand.

Currently, the demand for transportation by Russian airlines is not great. Over the past year, only 26.5 million passengers used their services, while 627 thousand tons of mail and cargo were transported. For Russia, with an official population of more than 140 million people and a total territory of 17,075.4 thousand square meters. km is very little. Similar indicators for developed countries with a comparable territory are 10 times higher than Russian ones. Therefore, there is potential demand for air travel in the country. But it cannot be fully utilized due to the current macroeconomic situation, including the low standard of living of the majority of the population and low business activity in the regions.

As for real demand, it is developing quite dynamically, and over recent years there has been a change in the structure of demand for air transportation with a significant shift towards the external market.

Demand for domestic air travel

Demand for domestic air travel has declined sharply since the early 1990s due to skyrocketing air fares. During the first 2 years of reforms, a much smaller number of the population began to use air transport (there was a 2-fold drop) and cargo turnover decreased (almost 4 times).

With the growth of business activity after the August 1998 crisis, the total volume of domestic Russian indicators began to gradually increase. At the end of last year, the number of passengers and cargo transported amounted to 15.44 million people and 262.67 thousand tons, respectively (Fig. 6). The greatest demand was for lines with the maximum maximum carrying capacity, such as Moscow-Novosibirsk, Krasnodar-Moscow, Yekaterinburg-Moscow, etc.

Today, the domestic market is mainly a market for business passenger transportation. Due to the low competitiveness of Russian tourism and low prices for railway tickets, the population prefers not to use air transport services for personal purposes.

At the same time, business trips are paid for by organizations, and not by citizens themselves, so price when choosing transport ceases to be a factor determining demand. Frequency of transportation and convenience of routes come first.

If we evaluate the potential capacity of the domestic air transportation market, it will directly depend on the dynamics of tariffs and the pace of development of the Russian economy. In the medium term, it is quite possible to attract the “middle class” to this market. According to Expert magazine, it now accounts for approximately 25% of the Russian population (about 36 million). How active its demand can be depends on prices, quality of service, frequency of flights and safety of Russian airlines.

Figure 6.
Dynamics of passenger and cargo transportation on domestic and international airlines (1992-2002)

Demand for external air transportation

The demand for external air travel continued to increase, despite the Russian crisis of 1990-2000. Its growth began with insignificant indicators (passenger turnover in 1992 was 14 billion passenger km, cargo turnover was about 500 million tkm), and as a result, over ten years it amounted to 317% of the number of passengers and 420% of cargo and mail transportation. This explosive increase in transportation figures on international routes is explained by three reasons: since the early 90s, with the fall of the Iron Curtain, the volume of supplies of imported goods increased, and a rush demand for tourist trips abroad began.

Moreover, the increased demand of Russians for foreign trips was not entirely “natural” and was largely initiated by the policies of airlines. After all, several years ago, Russian air carriers, together with tourism operators, began to form and offer their clients special service packages in which the cost of a round trip flight to Turkey, Egypt, and Cyprus was offered at dumping prices. Traveling by plane abroad has practically become cheaper than a holiday in Russia, and most tourists took advantage of the profitable opportunity to spend a vacation abroad, take a vacation in Tunisia or a tour to Italy.

It is important that the companies themselves did not suffer from this at all. The profitability of international air transportation is still much higher than domestic air transportation, while the efficiency indicators for international air transportation statistics are higher than for domestic flight statistics (Table 3).

Table 3.
Comparison of individual coefficients of international and domestic transport for 2002

Today, the foreign market has much greater potential for further growth than the domestic market. First of all, we are talking about the geographical position of Russia, which allows transportation between Europe and Asia - the two largest economic regions.

At the same time, the growth of business activity in Russia itself, its further integration into the international system of business, political, and social relations will entail additional passenger traffic of both foreign and Russian citizens.

And, finally, additional demand in the foreign market will appear with the expansion of the activities of Russian air carriers abroad and their cooperation with global airlines. The practice of interline agreements and code-sharing agreements, which are concluded by international companies with Russian carriers that are competitive in the world market, is already widespread in Russia.

The current situation and future of the global air transportation market is associated with the formation of airline alliances based on a circle of airports, on the basis of which the transportation network is built and which will ensure the growth of traffic for the member airlines based there. Competition in the global air transportation market is a struggle between airline alliances and major hub airports to capture the largest possible share of the consumer market.

There are currently two trends in the development of air transportation in the world:

1) the point-to-point system, which can be seen in the example of the USA, involves direct flights between the point of departure and the point of destination (Figure 1);

2) European countries are closer to the hub-and-spoke scheme (literally - hub and spoke), which means that the passenger flies to the destination not directly, but with a transfer at a hub airport (Figure 1).

In this case, the schedule must be designed so that the passenger can transfer to a connected flight as quickly as possible. That is, hub airports collect passenger traffic from a large number of cities and redistribute them to connected flights. The hub airport must also develop a special technology for passenger service and baggage handling, ensuring the highest possible level of passenger service. These trends leave their mark on the formation of the policies of leading aircraft manufacturing corporations: the American company Boeing and the Western European aircraft manufacturing alliance Airbus. The Americans believe that the future belongs to high-speed, highly economical airliners with medium passenger capacity, which will make it possible to organize non-stop air service between many cities around the world, bypassing large airports, since they are often overloaded. Europeans are relying on the A-380 superliner, which carries more than half a thousand passengers per flight with the highest level of comfort.

Picture 1

Only the largest airports in the world will be able to accept such aircraft, from where passengers will have to travel to their final destination on smaller-capacity aircraft. Based on these premises, leading aircraft manufacturing companies formulate a line of aircraft. Thus, the Boeing company is completing flight tests and is preparing for serial production the 787 model, capable of transporting from 200 to 300 people over a record 16 thousand km. And Airbus showed airlines a super-capacity double-deck A380, capable of carrying up to 550 people. At the same time, the European manufacturer does not discount the demand for ultra-long-range aircraft, so in defiance of Boeing and its 787 model it is creating a competing aircraft, the A350. It is impossible to expect that airliners of average passenger capacity (according to the American model) will fly to every airport, based on the capabilities of the airports and the availability of passenger traffic. Most likely, such aircraft will be able to deliver passengers to regional airports, from which passengers, depending on the distance, will fly to their final destination on local airlines or transported by road. Thus, in both directions of development, there remains a need for hub airports, the capacity and characteristics of which depend on passenger traffic and the type of aircraft used. We should not forget that even with the American model, the world’s largest hub airports successfully operate in the United States, for example, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, Houston and others with a passenger traffic of several tens of millions of people. per year every year.

Features of “point-to-point” and “hub`n`spoke” air transportation systems

Hub `n`spoke:

In order to serve the network, far fewer routes are needed. This is due to the fact that the number of pairs in a P2P network increases to a greater extent than the growth of nodes.

Given that there are fewer routes and the number of aircraft remains constant, airlines can schedule more frequent flights on each route and take full advantage of each aircraft's capacity.

Centralizing operations in the hub allows for economies of scale.

Minimizes connections and travel time. In addition, the less baggage transfer, the less chance of baggage loss.

There is no interdependence of flights and nodes - a flight delay or closed airport will not significantly affect other flight schedules. There is no single point of failure, and delays are unlikely to affect the entire system.

Table 1. Comparative characteristics of the “point-to-point” and “hub`n`spoke” systems

Property
	Optimized to provide services over a wide geographical area and many areas.	Each route serves one pair of cities. Individual routes may be scattered.
Connectivity	Many passengers make connections at hubs to continue their flight to their destination.	No connections are provided (although random or "rotating hub" connections are common).
Addiction	Each route is highly dependent on the others due to passenger connections.	Routes operate independently; other routes do not affect movement.
	Variable demand in any of the city pairs can be offset by demand in other markets.	Only changing frequencies and tariffs can counteract demand instability.
Market size	Efficiently serves cities that vary widely in size.	Requires high-density markets with at least one endpoint that is a high-demand destination.
	Maintains a high frequency of daily flights to all destinations.	Typically low frequency, depending on market type and density.
	Frequency and coverage area attract	Both business and economic
business passengers, providing cushion for higher business ticket prices.	Passengers are usually looking for good prices.
Asset use	Limited by network geography, connection times and node clusters.	No network restrictions on use.
Cost of operations	Hub connections significantly increase the cost of available seat miles, which is somewhat offset by the use of large long-haul aircraft.	Lowest cost available mile-seat between two points.
Aircraft requirements	The wide variety of landing capacities makes it necessary to match capacity with traffic, usually requiring more than one type of aircraft.	Suitable for one type of aircraft.

A hub airport is essentially a transit and transfer airport. Transportation through the largest foreign hubs is organized according to the principle of “hubs” and “spokes”. First, passengers on mainline, interregional and intercontinental routes gather at the hub airport (hub), then these passengers are sent on regional and local routes (spokes) to final destinations where it is not profitable for the mainline carrier to fly. Aviation statistics take into account two types of transit passengers: direct transit passengers and transfer passengers. The first are passengers of a flight making a temporary stop at the airport, for example, to refuel the aircraft carrying them or to board (disembark) some passengers. In this case, the flight number does not change, although the aircraft may be replaced. In this case, the carrier must pay the airport for servicing passengers who are passing the time of stop at the airport terminal. A transfer passenger is a passenger making a transfer at a given airport from a flight of one airline to another flight of the same or another airline (“transfer”). Such a passenger may have a single transportation document valid for the entire route, but the flight numbers will necessarily vary. This passenger is paid twice for the service: for the flight on which he arrived, and for the flight on which he departs. Therefore, from the point of view of airport economics, a single stay at the airport of a transfer passenger gives the effect of serving two passengers. And if this is a passenger on international flights, then in aviator jargon he is called a “fat passenger.” Naturally, this is the most desirable passenger at the airport, and there is fierce competition between airports to attract him and similar cargo.

Air transport services are the most dynamically developing sector in international trade in services. The pace of development of international air transportation at the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th centuries. significantly outstripped the growth rates of world GDP and industrial production (9-11% per year with world GDP growth of 3.5% per year).
The contribution of the civil aviation services market to the local, regional and global economy consists of the associated multiplier effect of the economic sectors interacting with it. These are air transport (passenger and cargo air transportation), aviation industry (aircraft manufacturing, engine manufacturing, component production), maintenance and repair. In addition, this includes airfield services, passenger services at airports, leasing operations, flight safety, etc.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates that the sector contributes around US$3 trillion to the global economy, equivalent to 8% of global GDP.
In international transport, passenger transport dominates. They account for about 70% of all traffic, while freight traffic accounts for 30%.
The number of people employed in the field of air transport services is about 25 million people, most of whom are concentrated in companies engaged in international air transport.
Table 2. Key performance indicators of the airline industry
(2001-2009)

Source: YATA Financial Forecast. 2010. March.
Despite the increase in passengers and cargo carried, the airline industry has one of the lowest profit margins. This is explained by the high level of competition. Air transportation is carried out largely by monopolies for air navigation services, monopolies of airports, fueling companies, service companies, and insurers. Therefore, in order not to reduce operating profits, airlines are increasing the volume of air transportation, which has grown one and a half times over the last decade, amounting to 4,300 billion passenger km in 2008.
The leaders in global passenger transportation to all countries are airlines from the USA, EU countries, Japan and China.
As for traffic by region, 31% of total traffic (passenger, cargo, mail) was carried by North American airlines, 29% by Asia and the Pacific, 28% by European airlines, 6% by Middle Eastern airlines, 4% — Latin America and the Caribbean and 2% — African airlines.
Table 3. Rating of airlines by passenger turnover (2010)


Source: Airline Business 2010. Aug. P. 28.
The increasing internationalization of post-industrial society is leading to a sharp increase in the intercountry movement of people, goods and services. By 2020, the volume of air traffic in the world, according to forecasts of leading aviation companies, will increase to 7000–9000 billion passenger-km compared to 3000 billion passenger-km at the end of the 20th century.
To implement the projected volume of air transport services, it is planned to significantly increase the fleet of aircraft. In the early 2000s, the fleet of passenger aircraft numbered 12 thousand units. (the entire fleet is 13.7 thousand units). By 2008, it amounted to 21 thousand units, and according to forecasts of leading air carriers, it will reach 36 thousand aircraft by 2020. New generation aircraft - economical, comfortable, high-speed - will allow direct passenger transportation to almost anywhere in the world. These are the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the next generation wide-body aircraft A 350 XWB (Airbus), the Israeli G250 created by Gulf Stream Aerospace, the fastest jet aircraft in the super-midsize class, the military transport Airbus A400M, etc.
The global air cargo fleet has doubled every 10 years over the past three decades and currently numbers 1,700 units. (for comparison: in 1970 - less than 100). By 2020 it could reach 3,200 aircraft.
Progress in the creation of more fuel-efficient aircraft, the introduction of technical innovations, and the use of logistics management schemes will help reduce operating costs and reduce tariffs for international passenger transportation.
One of the most effective methods to improve airline competitiveness is revenue management.
The key to a revenue management program is the ability to maximize revenue from every seat on a flight. The main emphasis is on managing demand and maximizing aircraft load.
The offer is characterized by varying the quality of services, segmenting consumers according to price sensitivity, an effective policy for hedging fuel costs, and building a tariff system. An effective tariff structure is based on the value of the service, taking into account the necessary costs, and maximizing income.
A special role is given to maximizing income along the network of connecting route segments, since many passengers fly with transfers (in the USA - 40-70% of passengers). This requires a combination of revenue management systems and computer reservation systems. When applying this system, it is advantageous to give preference to a high-income passenger if there is a free seat, but not to take away seats from two or more local passengers, each of whom takes a seat on only one segment, since their total payments can be significantly higher than that of one passenger . As a result of implementing a revenue management system, American Airlines generated more than $1.4 billion in revenue over three years in the early 1990s.
The efficiency of air transportation increases from the use of code-sharing agreements.
Code-share is the sharing of an aircraft from one company by several air carriers. The flight is operated by one company, and other carriers can sell seats on this plane at their own rates, under their own code and flight number. The benefits of the code sharing system are obvious. The number of its own flights is being reduced, but due to the partnership, the frequency of flights is maintained. In addition, thanks to code sharing, more convenient connections appear in case of transfers through a hub airport.
Aviation companies also use the overbooking strategy to reduce losses from unloaded aircraft due to no-show passengers. Later they present tickets to the company for a refund.
The overbooking strategy is to offer more tickets for sale than there are seats on the plane, in the hope that some passengers will not fly on that plane. (Overbooking more passengers than tickets.)
If more passengers come to boarding than there are seats in the cabin, the company sends the passenger on the next flight, and if the departure time is delayed, it provides compensation in the form of a range of services (food, hotel room, monetary compensation).
Finally, the efficiency of air transportation increases significantly when global air carrier alliances are created. Until the 90s of the XX century. Leading national airlines acted on the global market independently, without entering into partnerships with airlines from other countries. However, growing integration processes and the desire of air carriers to increase volumes and reduce the cost of transportation are increasingly leading to the creation of alliances, active cooperation and cooperation between global transport companies. Consolidation allows you to get rid of excessive competition, optimize the route network and organizational structure of the company, and strengthen your position in the market. Currently, the most well-known global alliances are Star Alliance, Sky Team and One World.
Star Alliance was formed in 1997 and carries about 500 million passengers per year. It unites 24 airlines, 55 base (hub) airports located in major regions of the world: in Europe - 22, Asia-Pacific - 17, North America - 14, in Africa - 2.
Sky Team was founded in 2000 and carries 462 million passengers. It consists of 11 full members (including Aeroflot) from 12 countries, 19 base (hub) airports: in Europe - 7, in North America - 5, Asia-Pacific - 4, Latin America - 2, in Africa - 1.
One World was created in 1999 and carries about 330 million passengers a year. It unites 10 airlines from 14 countries, has 24 base (hub) airports: in Europe - 7, Asia-Pacific - 7, North America - 4, Latin America - 5, in the Middle East - 1.
All three alliances include airlines from the USA (6), China (4), Spain (3); and in two alliances - Great Britain (2), Finland (2), Japan (2), South Korea (2) and Mexico (2).
An analysis of global air carrier alliances allows us to identify the following general principles for their construction:
1. Leadership of large companies based in the largest hub airports of the main regions of the world market.
2. Conclusion of agreements between the alliance participants on joint operation, on code sharing, on mutual recognition of transportation documentation (interline), on pro-rate tariffs, etc.
3. Ensuring high and uniform standards of flight safety (IOSA) and quality of services.
4. Use of unified programs to reward frequent flyers.
5. Application of advanced aviation technologies (intermodal transport, electronic ticketing, self-check-in kiosks, radio frequency identification of baggage).
6. Use of global distribution systems (Sabre, Amadeus, Galileo, Worldspan, etc.) and the main sales channel for passenger transportation - the agent network. As world practice shows, airlines sell up to 20-25% of their transportation themselves, and 75-80% of tickets are sold through a network of transportation sales agents. In the USA, Saber is the leader in the computer booking market, in Europe - Galileo and Amadeus, in Russia - SITAACB Gabriel.
7. Coordinated commercial and tariff policy, coordination of the route network and regular schedule, high degree of financial independence of airlines.
8. Reducing costs through the joint use of own (rented) passenger air terminals (lounges), provision of ground handling and airport services on a reciprocal basis.
In addition, it is planned to diversify the main production activities, sell paid services, and create a management company to quickly coordinate the activities of participants.

Russian air transportation market

Russia's share in the global volume of passenger air transportation is 2.4% (122.5 billion passenger-km). The level of development of aviation services is characterized by data on the number of passenger seats offered per resident of the country in one year. In the USA - this is 3 passenger seats per year (population 300 million people), in China - 0.3 seats per year (per 1.3 billion population), in India - 0.1 passenger seats (per 1.1 billion people), in In Russia, each of its 140 million people is offered 0.4 passenger seats.
At the end of 2008, there were 175 airlines in Russia, and at the end of 2009, their number decreased to 165. The number of passengers served in 2009 amounted to 45 million 107 thousand people. Aeroflot ranks first in terms of passenger turnover and the number of passengers on domestic and international routes. It transported 8.76 million people in 2010, and the seat occupancy rate was 69.5%.
The next place is occupied by Transaero - 5 million people and 81.5%, respectively. Other leading airlines, Globus and Airlines, carried 5.6 million passengers.
International air transportation is carried out in conditions of fierce competition. In recent years, the number of international carriers entering the Russian market has increased. Emirates, Thai Airways, Etihad, Niki, United, Singapore Airlines and others opened flights to Moscow.
On the Russian side, Aeroflot remains virtually the only significant player on international airlines. Other international carriers - Transaero, Sibir, UTair - do not always have the opportunity to operate on attractive routes. One of the reasons for this is bilateral intergovernmental agreements regulating air traffic between Russia and other states. They limit the ability of most Russian companies to enter the international aviation market. Unable to independently operate on international routes, Russian airlines actually transfer their passengers from regional flights to foreign companies.
Russian airlines, in order to compensate for their losses, sign agreements with foreign airlines, which give them the opportunity to sell transfer transportation at special rates, issuing a single ticket for their transportation segment and for a partner airline flight. However, they cannot engage in dialogue with foreign airlines on an equal basis due to the inability to independently enter transportation lines.
Measures to solve air transport problems are: renewal of the aircraft fleet, development of airports, training of highly qualified specialists. This also increases flight safety, insures flight personnel against accidents and insures the air carrier's liability to third parties.